FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 7/22/23
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
|Team||Opp SP||Opp||O/U||Moneyline||Implied Total|
Logan Webb ($10,800)
Despite a recent 2.8% salary bump to his third highest point this season, San Francisco's reliable veteran stands as an elite option on Saturday with a 2.90 xFIP and a 25.5% K-rate against a Washington Nationals' offense with a exploitable .309 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 20.7% K-rate.
In an appealing matchup versus six left-handed Washington bats, Webb's 2.69 xFIP and 27.0% K-rate in this split should work favorably towards surpassing his 30.9 fantasy projection and 5.15 strikeout prediction.
Dylan Cease ($9,400)
At his second lowest salary during July, Cease will take the mound versus a Minnesota Twins' lineup with a .322 wOBA and a 23.6% K-rate in their last 2109 plate appearances versus right-handers.
Through his last eight starts, the White Sox's fifth-year starter has produced his best stretch this season, accounting for a solid 3.39 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), a 32.3% K-rate, and seven or more strikeouts in five of his appearances.
With numberFire's second highest strikeout projection at 6.52 and Saturday's fourth overall fantasy expectation at 31.2, Cease's potential ceiling should be highly regarded against six Minnesota hitters with K-rates ranging from 23.3% to 31.7%.
Reid Detmers ($9,000)
After a noticeable 7.2% decrease to his lowest salary point this month, Los Angeles' left-hander will challenge a Pittsburgh Pirates' unit with a .326 wOBA and an eye-popping 33.1% K-rate including five hitters with strikeout percentages over 27.3%.
While Detmers has struggled in his last two starts, the 24-year old deserves today's top ranking at 35.8 expected FanDuel points when analyzing his stellar 3.85 xFIP and 29.4% K-rate in his most recent 46.0 innings.
After scoring an impressive 45 runs in their last six games, the Angels' red-hot offense has another appealing spot with a slate-high 5.31 expected run total against Pittsburgh's rookie Osvaldo Bido.
In his first stint in the Major Leagues, the 27-year old has been through a rough debut at the highest level of baseball in 27.0 innings, recording a 5.24 xFIP and a 9.4% walk rate while his Triple-A metrics (5.24 xFIP in 2023, 5.31 xFIP in 2022) also depict a below-average profile.
Ideal Angels' stacks can involve their top left-handed bats to attack Bido's glaring weakness versus the opposing side of the plate (.360 wOBA, 5.09 xFIP) including Shohei Ohtani (19.3% barrel rate, .435 expected wOBA), Mickey Moniak (.360 expected wOBA, 15.6% barrel rate), Matt Thaiss (9.0% barrel rate, .340 expected wOBA), Mike Moustakas (9.6% barrel rate), and Trey Cabbage (22.2% barrel rate).
In a matchup against Adrian Houser, Atlanta's elite offense are in an intriguing spot to produce against a pitcher due for serious regression when comparing his 3.79 earned run average with his current 4.70 xFIP.
To best exploit his 47.6% ground-ball percentage and his struggles versus left-handed bats (6.03 xFIP, 13.4% walk rate), ideal Atlanta combinations should start with top power lefty fly-ball hitters including Matt Olson (18.8% barrel rate, 33.5% fly-ball percentage), Ozzie Albies (8.3% barrel rate, 35.4% fly-ball percentage), Eddie Rosario (30.0% fly-ball percentage, 10.0% barrel rate), and Michael Harris II (8.4% barrel rate) while Austin Riley (26.4% fly-ball percentage, 11.8% barrel rate) and Marcell Ozuna (32.8% fly-ball percentage, 13.6% barrel rate) remain viable options with their recent batted ball form.
Allan Winans will make his first career start in Milwaukee against a Brewers' team ranked sixth among Saturday's main slate with an underrated 4.53 run total.
While not much is known about Winans' MLB potential, his Triple-A metrics including a 4.06 xFIP in 2023 and a 4.39 xFIP in 2022 do not inspire much confidence towards shutting down Milwaukee's top bats including Christian Yelich (.397 expected wOBA, 10.0% barrel rate), William Contreras (.350 expected wOBA, 9.3% barrel rate), and Willy Adames (.340 expected wOBA, 13.8% barrel rate).