3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/31/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Carlos Santana To Hit a Home Run (+460)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 4.91 implied run total tonight and should be able to reach that versus the Washington Nationals.
With Jake Irvin on the mound for the Nationals, we could see some long balls from the Brewers' sluggers tonight. Irvin has struggled versus lefties this season, allowing a .365 wOBA, .497 SLG, 5.31 xFIP, 1.99 HR/9, 43.8% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate.
This puts several of Milwaukee's hitters in a great spot, and we'll turn to the newly acquired Carlos Santana. He's been solid this season with a 100 wRC+, .321 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 38.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
We'll look to take that type of matchup every time, and with the Brewers having a solid implied team total, I'll look to add Santana To Record an RBI (+115), too.
Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+100)
When we get a Yordan Alvarez prop at even money, we simply take it.
Alvarez is an elite hitter and recently returned to the Houston Astros' lineup, which is always capable of posting runs in a hurry. That is the expectation today with their 4.97 implied run total at home, where they are set to take on Noah Syndergaard.
Syndergaard is flat-out bad this season with a .381 wOBA, .574 SLG, 5.08 xFIP, 2.27 HR/9, and 37.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, and we are getting a player prop at even money.
When it comes to Alvarez, he's elite across the board with a 172 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .310 ISO, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 47.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's picked up a hit in each of his first four games back and shows no signs of rust right now.
Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
We always want to target the Atlanta Braves' offense for some player props, and tonight is no different.
They are rocking their usual 5.78 implied run total at home and could exceed that in the blink of an eye. They will be up against Griffin Canning, who's allowing a .351 SLG, 1.12 HR/9, .248 BABIP, 36.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
Canning's BABIP is noticeably lower than the league average versus lefties, which sits at .296. Canning should be due for some negative regression, and the Braves' lineup is one that can certainly get that started.
We'll turn to Matt Olson, who comes in with a 166 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .359 ISO, 47.6% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. There's really nothing not to love about this matchup for Olson, who's elite at the dish this season.
