MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 8/1/23: Will the Rays Win in the Bronx for the Second Straight Night?
If you want a large inventory of options to bet, baseball has you covered.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
If I told you prior to the season that the New York Yankees were in a pick'em at home against the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where New York had Carlos Rodon throwing versus Zach Eflin, you'd probably be pretty confused.
Instead, as things stand, I'm a little perplexed as to why the Rays aren't favored, and numberFire's model feels the same.
Eflin has been superb in 2023, recording a career-best 3.37 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 3.7% walk rate. Pitching in the Bronx is never easy, especially with Aaron Judge back in the New York lineup, but even with Judge, the Yanks' active roster sits a meh 21st in wOBA (.313).
Rodon's tenure with the Yankees is off to a rough start. After missing a large chunk of 2023 due to injury, Rodon hasn't looked very good since coming off the shelf, struggling to a 5.85 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate over 20 1/3 innings.
Obviously, we're dealing with a small sample for Rodon this season, and he was a top-shelf ace a year ago (2.83 SIERA). But backing New York in this spot is banking on Rodon bouncing back in a big way today, and that's a tough one to stomach -- particularly at the Yankees' -108 moneyline -- with Rodon seeing a Tampa lineup that is eighth in wOBA against southpaws (.339).
numberFire's model has Tampa Bay winning this game 64.0% of the time. At the Rays' -108 moneyline, their implied win odds are just 51.9%.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Over 8.5 Runs (-104)
Justin Steele and Ben Lively are the expected starters for tonight's Chicago Cubs-Cincinnati Reds clash at Wrigley, and we could see some offensive fireworks.
Steele can be pretty darn good sometimes, and he's got a 3.83 SIERA across 228 2/3 frames since the start of 2022. But this is a tough spot for him.
Cincy checks in fifth in wOBA versus left-handers (.351), and with guys like Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Elly De La Cruz all hitting from the right side today, Steele has his work cut out for him.
Lively is nowhere near as good as Steele and also has a difficult matchup. Lively owns a 4.14 SIERA and 9.1% swinging-strike rate this season. His strikeout rate is just 19.4% away from home. Chicago's offense is red-hot at the moment, with an active roster that has produced an MLB-best .374 wOBA over the last 14 days.
The 8.5-run total should be a low bar for these two offenses to clear, and a slight wind out to left helps, too.
numberFire projects there to be 9.24 runs scored in this one (5.30-3.94 win for Chicago) and gives the over a 56.1% chance to hit.
