3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/2/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Ryan Mountcastle To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Baltimore Orioles have a great matchup for some power tonight and can put up runs in a hurry.
With power up and down their lineup, the Orioles are a great team to target for some player props. Tonight, that leads us to Ryan Mountcastle, who not only has a ton of power but is on fire at the plate right now.
Mountcastle comes in with a 183 wRC+, .347 ISO, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 42.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Those are elite across the board, and Mountcastle has been putting that on display lately with hits in eight of his last two games and a pair of homers in that time.
He will be up against Yusei Kikuchi, who is allowing a .450 SLG, .333 wOBA, 1.75 HR/9, 40.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Kikuchi's weakness plays directly into Mountcastle's strength, putting him in a juicy matchup.
Of course, I'll look to add Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+130), too.
Matt McLain To Record an RBI (+120)
The Cincinnati Reds have a big 4.71 implied run total tonight and should be able to flex their offense.
This game against the Chicago Cubs has a big 10.0 over/under, giving us a high expectation for scoring tonight. This is a great environment to find some value in player props, which leads us to Matt McLain.
He comes in with a 180 wRC+, .451 wOBA, .288 ISO, 36% fly-ball rate, and 35% hard-contact rate versus left-handers this year. McLain is a rookie, yet he's putting up All-Star-level numbers this season and has shown he can be one of the more consistent options in the league.
McLain will be up against Drew Smyly, who allows a .442 SLG, .4.79 xFIP, 1.56 HR/9, 44.9% fly-ball rate, and 20.8% strikeout rate versus righties. He's not going to be shutting down hitters at the plate and allows far too many fly balls, which puts McLain in a great spot to pick up an RBI.
Kodai Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
For a strikeout prop tonight, let's turn to over 6.5 strikeouts from Kodai Senga.
Senga has been solid in his first season in the MLB and can continue that trend tonight versus the lowly Kansas City Royals. Senga comes in with a very strong 29.1% strikeout rate, 12.5% swinging-strike rate, and 29.0% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate.
Those are essentially elite numbers this season, and it has allowed Senga to cross this 6.5 prop in half of his last 10 starts.
When it comes to the Royals, they are carrying a 23.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league. This is a clear plus matchup for Senga, and he should be able to rack up the strikeouts against a weak lineup.
