MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 8/2/23: It'll Be Another Offensive Outburst at Wrigley
If you want a large inventory of options to bet, baseball has you covered.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Over 10.0 Runs (-118)
The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs have combined for a total of 40 runs through the first two games of this series, including 29 runs last night. With middling lefties Drew Smyly and Brandon Williamson pitching tonight, the runs should keep flowing freely.
The weather should help, too, as temps are in the mid 80s with a slight wind blowing out to left.
Smyly, a 34-year-old veteran, is putting together one of the worst seasons of his career, struggling to a 4.59 SIERA and 20.7% strikeout rate. He's allowed 1.62 homers per nine innings at home this year and has been particularly bad across his last eight starts, permitting 12 homers and amassing a 5.13 expected FIP (xFIP) in that span.
The matchup doesn't help, either, as the Reds are really tough on southpaws, with an active roster that sits third in wOBA in the split (.354). This will be the third time Smyly has faced Cincy this year, and his past two starts against the Reds resulted in 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 frames.
The outlook isn't any better for Williamson, the owner of a 5.26 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 17.8% strikeout rate. Righties are mauling him to the tune of a .349 wOBA, 1.79 homers per nine and a 45.1% fly-ball rate.
Williamson will likely see as many as eight right-handed Cubbies tonight, and it's a Cubs active roster that ranks 12th in wOBA (.334) and seventh in fly-ball rate (39.6%) against left-handers.
In my eyes, all signs point to another offensive outburst, and I want to be on the side of the over.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 9.5 Runs (+102) | Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (-118)
I also like the over in tonight's Oakland Athletics-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup, and I think the Dodgers will be the side that does the heavy lifting to get us there -- shocker, huh?
LA is up against Hogan Harris. A lefty rookie, Harris has pitched to a 4.65 SIERA and 8.9% swinging-strike rate while allowing a 44.8% fly-ball rate. Righties have tagged him for a 45.6% fly-ball rate. Harris has given up multiple runs in 10 of his 12 appearances this year, including in each of the last seven.
In short, Harris doesn't have the profile of someone who will quiet a Dodgers offense that is 10th in wOBA against lefties (.335) and just added Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez to help them in this split.
Oakland's putrid offense might be able to make some noise, too, as they'll face Tony Gonsolin. Luck was on Gonsolin's side last year en route to a 2.14 ERA despite a 3.74 SIERA. Well, he's been even worse this year (4.91 SIERA), and his 4.25 ERA still doesn't reflect how bad he's been. His strikeout rate is just 19.7%, and he's given up a 43.6% fly-ball rate.
While the A's offense is what it is (read: terrible), Gonsolin gave up four earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, a similarly bad lineup, on July 2nd. He's just not good, and Oakland can push a few runs across. Plus, if LA's bats do their thing, we shouldn't need much from the Athletics to get this game over the 9.5-run total.
