3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/4/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Triston Casas To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Boston Red Sox have a big 5.76 implied run total and one of the softest matchups on the slate.
They are at home to take on the Toronto Blue Jays, who will have Alek Manoah on the mound. To say this season hasn't gone well for Manoah would be an understatement. He was sent down to the minors at the rookie ball level to regain his form, and he's now back in the MLB.
On the season, Manoah comes in allowing a .482 SLG, .380 wOBA, 6.53 xFIP, 1.77 HR/9, 46.9% fly-ball rate, and 43.1% hard-contact rate. These are some of the worst numbers not only on tonight's slate but in the entire league.
This leads us to the power-hitting Triston Casas, who is rocking a 131 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .237 ISO, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is the type of power we love to see in a great hitter's park such as Fenway.
Due to all of this, I'll add Casas To Record an RBI (+125), too.
Brandon Marsh To Record 2+ Total Bases (+125)
The Philadelphia Phillies have a great opportunity to put some runs on the board tonight.
They are at home and come in with a 5.41 implied run total against Jordan Lyles of the Kansas City Royals. Lyles struggles across the board, and while it puts several of the Phillies' hitters in a great spot, we'll turn to Brandon Marsh.
He comes in with a very solid 134 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .408 BABIP, .189 ISO, and 35.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Marsh makes great contact and puts the ball in play, which is exactly what we want to see for a total base prop.
When it comes to Lyles, he's allowing a .514 SLG, .359 wOBA, 5.40 xFIP, 2.11 HR/9, 17.0% strikeout rate, 47.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. The Phillies are expected to put up some runs with this high implied run total, and we can capture those runners on base with Marsh's prop tonight.
Luis Castillo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Luis Castillo is one of the elite pitchers in the league, so let's look at his strikeout prop tonight.
Castillo comes in with a 28.3% strikeout rate, 15.4% swinging-strike rate, and 30.1% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. He's been on fire over his last three games, pushing his strikeout rate to 33.3%, 36.0%, and 42.3% on a game-by-game basis. He routinely goes for over 100 pitches, so there's no concern over Castillo getting deeper into the game
The matchup against the Los Angeles Angels is a favorable one because they come in with a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. This is a very lopsided matchup in favor of Castillo, and he should be able to cruise to over 7.5 strikeouts tonight.
