MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/4/23: Runs Should Be Hard to Come By in Detroit
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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Under 9.0 Runs (-108)
The scarier offense here is obviously the Rays' attack, but Tigers starter Reese Olson is quietly having a nice season.
The rookie right-hander lit up Double-A last year to the tune of a 33.1% strikeout rate and 15.4% swinging-strike rate, and he's got a 3.84 SIERA and 11.4% swinging-strike rate across his first 49 2/3 MLB innings. His strikeout rate jumps to 26.1% at home, too, although we're dealing with small samples.
Tampa Bay is giving the ball to Zack Littell. Littell has mostly worked as a reliever this year but went five innings in his last start, so he's capable of giving the Rays some length. He's pitched to a 3.45 skill-interactive (SIERA) this season and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Tigers offense that sits next to last in wOBA (.293).
numberFire's model projects the under to win out 51.0% of the time.
Phillies -1.5 (-122)
The most obvious reason is that the Royals' offense is a trainwreck. Against righties, KC checks in 27th in wOBA (.292) with the eighth-highest strikeout rate (23.9%).
The other reason is that Nola has been much better at home this season than he's been in his travels.
|Nola's Splits||wOBA||SIERA||Strikeout Rate|
If there was ever a spot for Nola to deal, this is it.
Oh, and we can't forget about the Philadelphia Phillies' offense against Jordan Lyles. The veteran right-hander is having an awful campaign, struggling to a 5.17 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate. Putting those numbers inside a homer-happy park is just asking for the Phils' offense to go nuts.
numberFire's model is backing me up as it projects Philly to cover the run line 56.2% of the time.