3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/7/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Ozzie Albies To Hit a Home Run (+500)
The Atlanta Braves have a big 5.26 implied run total and can always push past that quickly.
With plenty of power up and down their lineup, the Braves have plenty of players to consider for home run props. We want a combination of good underlying stats and odds, which leads us to Ozzie Albies tonight.
On the season, Albies comes in with a 100 wRC+, .324 wOBA, .242 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This has led him to hit 20 of his 25 home runs in this split, making it the ideal spot to target.
Albies will be up against Osvaldo Bido, who allows a .373 wOBA, .446 SLG, 4.78 xFIP, 1.17 HR/9, .391 BABIP, and 34.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. This is a favorable spot for not only Albies but the entire Braves' offense overall.
I'll look to add Albies To Record an RBI (+130), too.
Marcus Semien To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)
Marcus Semien is on fire at the plate and has a simple total base prop tonight.
With an active seven-game hitting streak, Semien is locked-in at the plate and holds a spot to continue that tonight. He will be up against Ken Waldichuk, who struggles versus righties this season to the tune of a .375 wOBA, .486 SLG, 5.19 xFIP, .342 BABIP, 1.51 HR/9, and 39.3% fly-ball rate.
With the Texas Rangers rocking a 5.31 implied run total, they are expected to get plenty of runners on base, and we want to capture that via a Semien total base prop.
This season, Semien comes in with a 112 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .315 BABIP, 16.0% strikeout rate, 49.1% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate versus southpaws this season.
Semien has borderline elite numbers and a soft matchup to keep this hot streak rolling.
Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)
To close things out, let's turn to a strikeout prop from Dylan Cease tonight.
Cease has been up and down this season, providing a lack of consistency when it comes to his props. Overall on the season, he has a 26.9% strikeout rate and has been under that in his latest two starts but was over that in the three starts prior. While that's a small sample size, it has led to him being over this 6.5 mark in just two of those outings.
Cease also comes in with a questionable 9.7% walk rate, which can drive up his pitch count and prevent him from getting deeper into the game. This is great to see when we are targeting under 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
For the matchup, Cease will be up against the New York Yankees, who come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (17th in the league).
This is a very average matchup for Cease, who hasn't been in peak form lately.
