MLB Betting Guide for Monday 8/7/23: Can the Giants Solve Their Southpaw Struggles?
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From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Under 9.0 (+100)
Given the struggles of Tony Gonsolin this year, it's easy to understand the love toward an over, but this number might be too high in one of baseball's best parks for hurlers.
Gonsolin's 4.11 ERA isn't the concern; it's his 4.97 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Even in actual results, the Los Angeles Dodgers' lefty has ceded 1.23 HR/9. The argument for this under isn't him.
These two offenses are elite, but today's split presents a bit of a discount. In the last 30 days, San Diego has a 148 wRC+ against lefties, but that mark is just 109 against right-handed pitchers. L.A. has seen a bit of a drop from lefties (137 wRC+) to righties (129), as well.
Decent pitching and that split discount are likely why numberFire's model loves the under today. It's projecting it to hit 60.1% of the time versus these 50.0% implied odds.
Twins -1.5 (-102)
Given that the Detroit Tigers have been horrendous all season, this might be a "chalk" side, but the Minnesota Twins are 51-62 against the spread (ATS), so they've burned enough bettors to likely not merit a ton of attention, either.
This still appears to be a plum spot for Pablo Lopez -- one that I can't avoid. Detroit still hasn't figured out right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days, they've got just an 85 wRC+ with a 24.2% strikeout rate against righties. If not for some bad fortune, Lopez could have been an All-Star this year, amassing a 3.37 SIERA and a sparkling 29.9% strikeout rate.
Joey Wentz of the Tigers has a long way to go to even reach "unlucky". His 6.37 ERA is backed by a 5.50 expected ERA (xERA), and he's also in the bottom quarter of MLB pitchers with a 42.9% hard-hit rate allowed to this stage.
Minnesota was laughably bad against southpaws earlier in the season, but they've shrugged that off with a .750 OPS in the split during the past 30 days. They appear well-positioned to vanquish the Stripes on Monday.
Angels ML (+106)
The San Francisco Giants are just -124 favorites with their best pitcher on the mound, and it's because they're primed to let him down.
Logan Webb can certainly sit right next to Lopez in the "snub" category from this year's All-Star festivities. Webb's 3.17 SIERA is even better than a 3.45 ERA that is dazzling on its own, and he's a consistent bet with a 60.6% groundball rate.
However, his 46.0% hard-hit rate allowed is pretty high, and those seeing-eye grounders can miss gloves on any given night. That could be especially true against a retooled Los Angeles Angels lineup, one that has a .769 OPS against righties during the past 30 days.
San Francisco's offense is the issue. They haven't really figured out lefties to this point, holding a dreadful .594 OPS against them in the past 30 days. Patrick Sandoval (4.35 xERA) isn't the best southpaw in baseball, but similar to Webb, his 50.5% groundball rate has allowed him to cede just 0.70 HR/9. You have to work to get to him, and S.F. has proven incapable in this split.
There's some variance here with bullpens that have been up and down during the 2023 campaign, but plus money is hard to ignore when the Giants are truly one of baseball's worst offenses against lefties.
This line should improve throughout the afternoon as the public lines up behind Webb.