MLB

MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 8/8/23: Will the Pirates Shock the Braves Again?

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Aug 8th, 2023
Pittsburgh stunned Atlanta by chasing Spencer Strider out of the game early on Monday. Now with their ace on the bump, can the Pirates hand the Braves a lost series on Tuesday?

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

Under 10.0 (-110)

Other than the hitter-friendly ballpark, plenty of signs are pointing toward fewer runs than expected today in Cincinnati.

The visiting Miami Marlins will send one of their better starters, Braxton Garrett, to the mound. Garrett's 4.14 ERA isn't a great measure of his prowess when a 3.30 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) sits behind it, and he's posted an excellent 26.3% strikeout rate.

It'll help him that the Cincinnati Reds have just an 88 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days, but the Marlins have been even worse in their split. They've got just an 85 wRC+ and a poor .140 ISO against righties in the past 30 days entering this date with Luke Weaver.

Weaver might also be undervalued if taking his 6.98 ERA at face value. Weaver's supporting SIERA is just 4.98, which is quite a bit more normal.

I'll be the first to admit Weaver, ceding 2.22 HR/9 this season, isn't exactly a sure thing, but this number presents plenty of margin for error considering the pair of below-average offenses in their respective splits.

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates +1.5 (-118)

This is a tough game to find a line to support my general stance. The Pittsburgh Pirates' offense should get going in some respect; the question just becomes if we can trust @@m.

There's not much debate Keller is the better hurler here. He's sporting a 3.88 SIERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate, but the obvious drawback is the Atlanta Braves squad he'll draw. Atlanta, even despite "cooling off" relative to their July form, has an .886 OPS against righties in the past 30 days.

Still, it's pretty hard to pass up the spread when expecting the Pirates to plate quite a few runs offensively. Atlanta's starter, Yonny Chirinos, enters with a horrendous 5.10 SIERA, a pitiful 13.0% strikeout rate, and a gigantic 44.0% hard-hit rate allowed.

If there's one thing the Buccos do extremely well, it's torch mistakes like the ones he makes regularly. Their .201 ISO in this split is the seventh-best mark in baseball over the past month.

numberFire's model still expects the under to hit 61.6% of the time in this one, so rather than fade it, I'll back Pittsburgh with a run -- potentially behind a solid effort from Keller in this tough matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.0 (-115)

Though Brandon Pfaadt put forth one of the best efforts of his career last time out, I'm fully fading him here.

Pfaadt's rookie campaign has been a disaster. He's amassed a 7.11 ERA, which is supported by a 5.35 expected ERA (xERA). He's also posted a strikeout rate lower than expected (19.0%) with a plethora of flyballs (44.8% rate) and homers (2.84 HR/9).

Any regression from last time out against the Los Angeles Dodgers could be extremely costly. Now healthy, L.A.'s offense posted 13 runs yesterday and holds MLB's third-best OPS against right-handers (.853) in the past 30 days.

The much more debatable side of this wager is Julio Urias on the other side facing the Arizona Diamondbacks. Urias (4.11 SIERA) is never an easy guy to light up with a low 32.3% hard-hit rate, and Arizona's 82 wRC+ in this split over the past month isn't great.

However, if the Dodgers just get a solid head start against Pfaadt, this game should coast over late into the game. These have been two of the bottom-eight bullpens (by xFIP) during the last month of play, and this total of nine isn't even particularly high in a top-10 park for bats.