MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 8/9/23: Is the Phillies' New Ace the Real Deal?
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Over 9.0 (-102)
Both of the pitchers in Philadelphia might be a bit overvalued today.
Lorenzen's 3.48 ERA was a bright spot for the Detroit Tigers, but unfortunately, he's got a 4.47 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) that shows it was good fortune in one of baseball's best parks for hurlers. He dominated the reeling Miami Marlins in his Philadelphia debut, but I'm not sold. A minuscule 9.8% HR/FB ratio has helped him otherwise avoid the consequences that typically come with a 40.4% hard-hit rate allowed.
Hard contact is a bugaboo of MacKenzie Gore, too. The Washington Nationals' lefty is a boom-or-bust option with an even higher hard-hit rate allowed (44.5%) than Lorenzen but also greater strikeout upside (26.9% rate). Wrap it all together, and Gore's 4.89 expected ERA (xERA) isn't great, either.
Philadelphia and Washington also have the worst and 11th-worst bullpens, respectively, when looking at xFIP over the last 30 days. Citizens Bank Park is a favorable venue for hitters, and the pitching they'll face today should be gettable.
Twins -1.5 (+106)
The towering righty has scored a breakout 2023 for the Minnesota Twins. He's amassed a 3.76 xERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, and kept his hard-hit rate allowed (35.1%) in the top quartile of baseball to this point.
Of course, Detroit has stunk against right-handed pitching all season, and an 84 wRC+ the past 30 days (sixth-worst in MLB) hasn't shifted that trend. The Twins have a massive 130 wRC+ in that same time, and they could torch Detroit's Alex Faedo today.
Faedo hasn't made the leap most had hoped in Motown. His 4.37 SIERA is likely a better indicator of skill than a 5.80 ERA, but his strikeout rate (21.0%) is well below what was expected when punching out 44.4% of batters with Triple-A Toledo last year.
Getting plus money to lay just one run behind a lethal Twins offense (in this split) and a solid right-handed pitcher is even better than Monday's line with Lopez on the bump. We'll hope for a similar outcome.
Diamondbacks ML (+112)
The Snakes are 5-18 since the break and tumbling out of contention, yet they sit as just short home 'dogs to the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers tonight with two quality pitchers on the bump. I trust the veteran (Merrill Kelly) a bit more than a rookie on the road (Bobby Miller) in this case.
Kelly has a 4.06 SIERA to Miller's 4.00. Kelly's strikeout rate (25.9%) is slightly higher than Miller's (23.0%). Both of their flyball rates are sub-35.0%, and both rank in the 35th-to-40th percentile across MLB in hard-hit rate allowed. In terms of results, today's starters are spitting images of each other.
There's a trade-off beyond them, though. L.A.'s offense (.849 OPS against righties in the past 30 days) has definitely outperformed Arizona's (.715) as of late in this split, but the D-Backs' bullpen xFIP over the past month (4.75) is lower than L.A.'s (4.97) despite the fact they haven't gotten to use their best arms often when trailing so often.
I'm forecasting this game closer to a pick 'em, which presents value with the home team that comes at plus money.