6 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters for 4/21/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $4,000
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
It seems impossible that George Springer would be under-owned in a matchup with A.J. Griffin, but with Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo both in terrific matchups and several viable value plays in the outfield, Springer may go overlooked in a righty-righty matchup.
Why You Should Use Him:
After three straight games with home runs, Springer finally was held in check last night. He has a chance to get back on track tonight against Griffin, who has a 5.97 SIERA this season and a 4.02 career SIERA.
Griffin has been even worse against righties in his career, allowing a higher slugging percentage and wOBA to righties, as well as a higher fly-ball rate.
Springer has been better against lefties in his career, but his numbers against righties are still quite good. He is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and is facing a bad pitcher, yet you can likely get him far lower owned than Bautista or Trumbo. Give him a look in tournaments.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Price: $3,600
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Manny Machado will be the most popular option at third base today, while Mike Moustakas seems likely to go overlooked given his modest production this season.
Why You Should Use Him:
Moustakas and the Royals have the highest implied team total today, as Vegas expects them to get to Mike Pelfrey early and often. Hitting second in the order, the man they call "Moose" is in prime position to be a big part of the potential scoring barrage.
This matchup lines up very nicely for Moose from a statistical perspective, too. Pelfrey posted a 4.59 SIERA last year and allowed a higher slugging percentage, wOBA, fly-ball percentage, and walk rate to lefties, while striking them out less often than right-handers.
Moose has improved numbers against righties throughout his career, especially at home, where he has a significantly higher slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate. Speaking of hard-hit rate, he has posted an absurd 43.2 percent hard-hit rate so far this season, while also having the highest average exit velocity on his batted balls among third basemen at 94.3 miles per hour.
Quite simply, the lefty is crushing the ball right now. It's only a matter of time until those hard-hit balls start turning into more extra-base hits -- and, consequently, fantasy points. Against a weak right-handed opponent, that time could come tonight. Load up on Moose in tournaments.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Price: $3,500
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Gregory Polanco is in a terrific spot tonight and is underpriced. However, the Pirates have a moderate implied team total, and outfield has some glaringly obvious plays at the top. He won't go completely under the radar, but he will likely see lower ownership than he should.
Why You Should Use Him:
Polanco's progression this season has been pure awesomeness for the truthers who have stuck with the prospect through his first couple seasons. Particularly, his career-high 34.1 percent hard-hit rate sticks out, as does his ridiculous walk-to-strikeout ratio. After posting an 8.4 percent walk rate last season, Polanco's walk-rate currently sits at 21 percent, while his strikeout rate is down to 12.9 percent. Obviously, it is a small sample size. But, strikeout rate and walk rate are the most quickly normalizing stats for hitters, so Polanco's improved plate discipline is certainly indicative of an improved hitter.
I almost got so carried away gushing about Polanco's Gucciness that I forgot to tell you why he's such a great play today. Sorry about that!
Polanco will face off against James Shields, who can still pass as a respectable pitcher against right-handed batters but who is beaten to a pulp by lefties. Last season, lefties posted a .522 slugging percentage against Shields, as opposed to righties' .376 mark. He also allowed lefties to post superior ISO, wOBA, walk rate, and fly-ball rates, while striking out less often.
Polanco, a lefty, has some pretty fun splits himself. In his career, Polanco has raised his slugging percentage from .258 against lefties to a robust .406 mark against righties. He's also seen improvement in his ISO, wOBA, walk rate, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against righties, while striking out less often. It won't be easy to pass on some of the elite outfielders in terrific spots tonight, but Polanco comes at a discounted price and ownership.
Kendrys Morales, 1B, Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Price: $3,300
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Chris Davis will be the chalk at first base, while Edwin Encarnacion is sure to be popular as well. Kendrys Morales is never a popular play, which won't change tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Similar to Moustakas, Morales will benefit from facing a weak right-hander and hitting in the heart of Kansas City's lineup.
Morales is a switch hitter but will be hitting from the left side against Pelfrey today. Last season, Morales raised his slugging percentage from .412 to .538 against righties, while also raising his ISO from .113 to .254. Morales' hard-hit rate rose to 38.3 percent against righties last year too. All of these stats used in conjunction offer an easy explanation as to why Morales hit 18 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season.
It won't be easy to pass up on Chris Davis' upside tonight, but Morales is a crucial part to any Royals stack you make.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Similar to Morales, Pedro Alvarez will lose ownership among a deep first base position. Alvarez also hits in the bottom of the order, which is sure to keep his ownership down.
Why You Should Use Him:
This pick should be reserved for large-field tournaments only. Alvarez has looked lost at the plate to start the season. Not only are his counting stats down, but also his hard-hit rates offer little to no reason for optimism.
If there were ever a matchup tailor-made to get Alvarez back on track, it is tonight's. Alvarez will face right-hander Marco Estrada, who posted a 4.64 SIERA last season and was predictably worse against left-handed batters. Estrada is also a finesse pitcher, against whom Alvarez has posted much better splits in his career. He has elevated his batting average from .186 against power pitchers to to .280 against finesse pitchers and his slugging percentage from .352 to .527 against finesse pitchers.
He's also been much more effective against righties than lefties throughout his career. He's hit 114 of his 131 career homers against righties, while increasing his slugging percentage, ISO, and wOBA each by nearly 100 points. Those numbers are supported by an improved 37.7 percent hard-hit rate and 34.4 percent fly-ball rate against righties.
This game is also being played at Camden Yards, which has the third-highest Park Factor over the last three years.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Jose Altuve will be the most popular option at second base, while Jonathan Schoop will go overlooked hitting at the bottom of the order for Baltimore.
Why You Should Use Him:
Just about everything about Alvarez's situation also applies to Schoop, except the hard-hitting second baseman has actually showed some promise this season.
Similar to Alvarez, Schoop has crushed right-handed pitching in his career, knocking in 30 of his 35 career home runs against righties. His numbers against righties are improved down the line, but his splits at home against righties are most impressive.
In 319 career plate appearances against righties at home, Schoop has posted a .485 slugging percentage, .234 ISO, and .331 wOBA, with a 33.8 percent hard-hit rate, while cutting his strikeout rate down to 20.4 percent.
