5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for 4/22/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
FanDuel Price: $6,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
There are several ways to go at starting pitcher today, which is sure to leave Aaron Nola overlooked tonight. Aaron Sanchez has gotten off to a hot start and is only $6,700 tonight going against a light-hitting Oakland offense. Adam Wainwright is facing the Padres, so he's sure to be a popular pick. Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Jon Lester are all also in appealing matchups, so expect some ownership to be spread among the three.
Nola struggled in his last start and is very unlikely to be a popular commodity tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Nola's struggles have been with left-handers, but Milwaukee doesn't have any intimidating lefties in their lineup. Their best lefty is Scooter Gennett, and they regularly start a lineup with just two left-handed batters.
The Brewers ranked 26th in wRC+ against righties last season and had a 21.4 percent strikeout rate against righties, which was the eighth-highest in the Majors. They also were just 26th in walk rate against right-handed batters. This season, their strikeout rate is up to 25.7 percent strikeout rate against righties this season.
Nola doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he has recorded 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season, so he could certainly take advantage of Milwaukee's free-swinging lineup. He's not a cash game option, but he is a fine dart throw in tournaments.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Price: $4,000
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
You always play Paul Goldschmidt against weak lefties, right? Yeah, of course -- pencil him in!
But, wait! Anthony Rizzo is facing a vulnerable righty. Adrian Gonzalez draws a rookie right-hander at Coors. Chris Davis will square off against a righty who had a 5.15 SIERA last season. Lucas Duda has homered in three straight and faces a susceptible right-hander.
Wait, Miguel who?
Why You Should Use Him:
Righty Josh Tomlin was horrible against righties last season, as he watched his slugging percentage against balloon from .279 against lefties to .555 against righties. His wOBA and fly-ball rate saw similar splits, with his fly-ball rate against righties being a dangerous 51.1 percent.
Miguel Cabrera has very even splits throughout his career, but he has actually been slightly better against righties in several areas, including slugging percentage and fly-ball rate, which bodes well for his power potential tonight against Tomlin. He hasn't been great lately, but it's not often that you get a chance to target one of the game's best hitters at a discounted price and ownership against a susceptible pitcher.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
FanDuel Price: $3,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Jose Altuve has been incredible this season and the Astros have the highest implied total of anyone not playing at Coors Field. Those looking to save salary will roster the red-hot Neil Walker, who is cheaper than Robinson Cano, against Bud Norris.
Cano's opponent, Nick Tropeano, has gotten off to a hot start, and it is unlikely that daily fantasy players target hitters against him today. As a result, Cano will likely see very low ownership tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
While Tropeano has been spectacular in two starts this season, let's take a look at the larger sample size. Last season, Tropeano was slightly worse against lefties than against righties in nearly every category, but what really stood out was his fly-ball rate. His fly-ball rate jumped from 35.1 percent against righties to 48 percent against lefties, which is exciting news for Cano's power potential.
Speaking of power, that's about all Cano has offered this season. His fly-ball rate is up to a career-high 40.4 percent so far, and he hit his sixth homer of the young season last night. Clearly, he is swinging for the fences, which bodes well for tournament play -- especially when he faces a righty who gives up fly balls often.
In his career against righties, Cano has elevated his slugging percentage to .524, his ISO to .207, his wOBA to .378, his hard-hit rate to 35.2 percent, and his fly-ball rate to 31.2 percent. He has also cut down on his strikeout rate while upping his walk rate. Clearly, he is more comfortable at the plate when facing right-handed pitchers. He could easily go 0-for-4 tonight, but he also has legitimate double-dong potential, which he has already flashed once this season.
Victor Martinez, C, Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Yasmani Grandal will be the chalk at catcher, and for good reason.
Victor Martinez will likely be the second or third most popular option at his bargain bin price but will not see the ownership he deserves.
Why You Should Use Him:
Similar to Miggy, V-Mart will benefit from a matchup with Josh Tomlin. He has been slightly worse against righties in his career, but his numbers are still very respectable.
He has hit safely in five straight games for Detroit and will be hitting in the heart of their lineup once again tonight. FanDuel is just begging us to roster him, as he is not only eligible at catcher but also priced as just the 13th-most expensive catcher. He is an excellent contrarian value pivot off of Grandal tonight.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Nolan Arenado is at home with a 5.2-run implied team total. Manny Machado is facing Chris Young. Kris Bryant is coming off of a 60-FanDuel-point performance and is facing Jon Moscot tonight.
Yeah, Evan Longoria is going to be like most of us fantasy nerds in high school -- unpopular.
Why You Should Use Him:
Longoria has been heating up at the plate recently, with a hit in four of his past five games and a home run last night. His recent success is just part of the reason to love Longo tonight, though. The main reason is the man on the mound, CC Sabathia.
Sabathia still looks like a respectable pitcher when facing left-handed batters, but it is a much different story against righties. For some context, check out his splits chart below. Fair warning, though, it's not pretty.
| Name | SLG (L) | SLG (R) | wOBA (L) | wOBA (R) | K% (L) | K% (R) | BB% (L) | BB% (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | 0.279 | 0.502 | 0.231 | 0.37 | 30.00% | 16.20% | 4.30% | 7.50% |
I should have clarified. It's not pretty unless you are Evan Longoria or anyone rostering Longoria tonight. It's unlikely the first applies. (If so, I'm honored, Evan.) But, hopefully after reading, the second will. If so, those splits are likely the prettiest thing you'll see until you see Longo take Sabathia yard for the seventh time in his career tonight.
Longoria has some pretty nifty splits himself, which you can see for yourself below.
| Evan Longoria | SLG | ISO | Hard% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Righties | 0.464 | 0.202 | 34.2% | 0.346 |
| vs Lefties | 0.538 | 0.245 | 34.7% | 0.383 |
This game is also being played at Yankees Stadium, which is home to the second-highest home run park factor over the past three seasons. Longoria has been successful playing in New York, too, with a career .288 batting average and .545 slugging percentage.
Longoria has similar upside as the top third base options available and comes at a considerable discount. Get him in those lineups!
