Re-Drafting the 2011 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
5 Busts
At least to this point, this has to be one of the most disappointing groups of top-10 draft picks that the NBA has seen in recent years.
| Player | Actual Pick | Re-Draft Pick | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Vesely | 6 | 22 | 16 |
| Bismack Biyombo | 7 | 40 | 33 |
| Jimmer Fredette | 10 | 58 | 48 |
| Enes Kanter | 3 | 57 | 54 |
| Derrick Williams | 2 | 59 | 57 |
While Jan Vesely would still be drafted in the first round in a re-draft as a result of limited but efficient play, he only played three seasons in the NBA before returning overseas after the 2013-14 season.
Jimmer Fredette, the former BYU standout we all know and love for his name becoming a verb, hasn't done much better than Vesely. In five seasons, he has accounted for a mere 2.4 win shares while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 48.9%. That's probably why, since being traded on draft night, he's played for four teams in five seasons and is currently under contract with the Shanghai Sharks of the Chinese Basketball Association.
Bismack Biyombo, like Fredette, was also traded on draft night. But, the two members of the 2011 draft have even more in common. Biyombo, after being drafted by Sacramento, was traded to Charlotte in a three-team deal that also involved the Milwaukee Bucks, who shipped Fredette to the Kings. In essence, Biyombo was traded to bring Fredette to Sac-town.
As previously mentioned, the freakishly athletic center is fresh off a big payday -- to the tune of $70 million over four years -- but it remains to be seen if he can be an everyday player and live up to the excitement.
As for Enes Kanter, he's playing off of the same contract as Biyombo, in Oklahoma City, but he has already provided us with reasons why that wasn't a great idea. Steven Adams is the Thunder's number-one center -- as evidenced by Kanter's 21 minutes per game in 2016 -- and when he has hit the court, he's been exploited defensively. His defensive box plus-minus of -3.1 ranked last among Thunder players with more than 1,000 minutes logged.
Derrick Williams, most recently with the New York Knicks, has not made the splash everyone expected from a number-two pick. He's become a decent player, posting .120 win shares per 48 minutes a year ago, but he's not even close to the superstar the Timberwolves were hoping for.
The takeaway from all this? Front offices didn't see the potential in the right players in this draft. They traded and took chances on international projects and college phenoms. The majority of them missed out on a trio of future All-Stars.
