Re-Drafting the 2011 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
5 Risers
These players, conversely, were significantly underdrafted.
| Player | Actual Pick | Re-Draft Pick | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | 60 | 6 | -54 |
| Chandler Parsons | 38 | 4 | -34 |
| Jimmy Butler | 30 | 3 | -27 |
| Kenneth Faried | 22 | 7 | -15 |
| Reggie Jackson | 24 | 10 | -14 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 15 | 1 | -14 |
Not only is IT2 the best 60th overall pick of the past 10 seasons, but he's also the only successful one of them all. Of the other nine players selected at that spot since 2006, only four have even set foot on an NBA court. Between them, the four have tallied 5.0 win shares, or approximately 15% of Thomas' win shares he's produced in his young career.
It's unlikely the Washington Wizards would have selected Thomas at number six after getting John Wall with the first pick in the 2010 draft. Even if they did, or if some other team in the top 10 did, Thomas wouldn't likely stick, just like in Sacramento and Phoenix. It doesn't matter though. IT2 has shown that, when given the opportunity, he's going to produce. In his two seasons of 30-plus minutes per game, the point guard has averaged more than 20 points and 6 assists per game.
With Chandler Parsons, the story's a little different, and definitely a little more complicated. He's battled to stay on the floor recently in Dallas, but after signing a max deal with Memphis, he's ready to start producing again. His career averages of 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists bring a lot to the table. It would've been interesting to see how things would have played out had Parsons been snatched by the Cavs at the four spot.
Butler and Leonard are grouped together here for obvious reasons. They are two of the best two-way players in the league and have far outperformed their draft projections.
For Leonard, 14 spots isn't a huge jump, but if we re-did this draft he would be number one by a long shot. He's the only player with at least .200 win shares per 48 and the only player with a Finals MVP to his name. If Cleveland landed the same Leonard that San Antonio has seen grow into a star, it's again unlikely that LeBron would make a dramatic return.
For Butler, he's one of the best underdog stories in the NBA. He has gone from a player drafted with the last pick in the first round to a player who you'd definitely pick in the top three. He's now a two-time All-Star with a Most Improved Player award and two NBA All-Defense selections to his reputation. He would be a perfect fit in Utah right now had they known he would be much better than Kanter.
With Faried and Jackson, I think we're yet to see the best they have to offer.
As made evident by his .156 win shares per 48, Faried could have been a piece of Sacramento's puzzle, but who knows how he would've developed in that environment. Nevertheless, he's been solid in Denver, averaging 16.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes while fighting off other players for starter's minutes.
Jackson might have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of being drafted earlier. Had he gone to Milwaukee -- who has struggled to maintain an effective point guard -- he wouldn't have been stuck behind Russell Westbrook and might be a little further along in his development.
With that being said, Jackson has found success since being traded to Detroit, tallying 18.8 points and 6.2 assists a night in 30.7 minutes of action a season ago. His journey has had some twists and turns, but it seems like he's right where you'd expect a late first-rounder to be five years in.
