Re-Drafting the 2013 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
Busts
14 teams are still losing sleep at night over passing on the chance of drafting Giannis Antetokounmpo and a whopping 25 passed on Rudy Gobert (since the Bucks are obviously happy with their pick at 15). The selections listed below, in particular, must really sting when looked back on, because these guys -- who were all taken over Giannis and Rudy -- are already shaping up to be worth less than the pick invested in them.
| Player | Actual Pick | Re-Draft Pick | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Bennett | 1 | 60 | -59 |
| Alex Len | 5 | 53 | -48 |
| Ben McLemore | 7 | 42 | -35 |
| Trey Burke | 9 | 43 | -34 |
It's hard to call Alex Len a bust just yet because he has shown signs of promise in Phoenix. Last year, Len averaged 9.0 points and 7.6 rebounds in 23.3 minutes per contest (13.9 points and 11.7 boards per 36), but his issues lie in his shooting ability (42.3% from the field for a 7'1" center is suboptimal) and defensive IQ (defensive rating of 107 in 2015-16). He will likely outperform his 53rd overall re-draft pick in the long run, but he's starting to shape up as nothing more than a poor man's Jonas Valanciunas if he can't get his efficiency and defense to an acceptable level.
Bennett might give guys like Michael Olowokandi (1998) and Kwame Brown (2001) a run for their money as the worst first overall pick in NBA history, but he's still got time to turn things around at age 23, especially now that he's playing on a hapless Brooklyn Nets team that can give him the minutes to figure things out.
Regardless, three years in, his -1.7 VORP would drop him from first overall in the real draft to the last pick in our re-draft. Considering that's quite literally the biggest drop possible in this exercise, it's safe to say that Bennett will have a crazy uphill battle to shaking the "bust" title.
The Utah Jazz recently pulled the plug on the Trey Burke project by shipping him off to Washington for a second-round pick in 2021 (so essentially nothing). Burke has averaged a respectable 12.1 points and 4.2 assists over his career, but his low efficiency (career 38.4% shooter from the field) and horrible defense (111 career defensive rating) make him a hard sell as even a backup point guard on a lottery team.
Not really what the Jazz were hoping for when they traded Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Burke as the ninth overall pick. Funny how Utah both acquired the top pick (Gobert) and traded away the second pick (Dieng) in our re-draft in separate draft-day deals. The draft giveth and the draft taketh away.
Finally, Ben McLemore has just never panned out in Sacramento, despite being toted as one of the most NBA ready players from the draft going into his 2013-14 rookie year. He's never had a player efficiency rating (PER) close to the league average of 15.0 (9.1 for his career) and his career defensive rating of 112 is just deplorable. For a guy who is supposed to be a shooting specialist of sorts, a 34.6% shooting mark from downtown won't cut it for someone who generally can't get a stop on the other end.
