Re-Drafting the 2013 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
If we sort the draft by players with the highest VORP over their first three NBA seasons, the results are very different, with only four carry-overs from the top 10 that actually happened.
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS/48 | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland | Rudy Gobert | 6.8 | 13.4 | .171 | 16.1 |
| 2 | Orlando | Gorgui Dieng | 5.5 | 4.8 | .119 | 13.0 |
| 3 | Washington | Mason Plumlee | 5.2 | 10.4 | .146 | 15.5 |
| 4 | Charlotte | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 4.9 | 0.2 | .096 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Phoenix | Victor Oladipo | 4.3 | -13.0 | .063 | 9.7 |
| 6 | New Orleans | Steven Adams | 3.8 | 6.5 | .130 | 13.5 |
| 7 | Sacramento | Kelly Olynyk | 3.5 | 4.4 | .120 | 10.6 |
| 8 | Detroit | Nerlens Noel | 3.0 | -3.4 | .079 | 7.0 |
| 9 | Minnesota | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 2.8 | -8.6 | .069 | 10.0 |
| 10 | Portland | Cody Zeller | 2.5 | 7.0 | .131 | 12.7 |
If we used advanced analytics to re-draft the 2013 class in hindsight, Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, Trey Burke, and C.J. McCollum (believe it or not) would drop out of the top 10.
While many would expect the top spot to go to Giannis Antetokounmpo or even C.J. McCollum at this point, you have to keep in mind that neither of those guys really hit his stride until last year. If you look at cumulative VORP over all three years since the draft (or two in the case of Nerlens Noel, who missed his first year due to the aforementioned ACL tear), the top spot goes to the 27th pick of the 2013 NBA Draft, Rudy Gobert out of France.
Gobert was selected 27th by the Denver Nuggets and traded on draft night to the Utah Jazz for Erick Green (the 46th overall pick) and cash. Oops.
Since then, Gobert has posted career averages of 7.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 24.1 minutes per contest, while shooting 57.5% from the field. While the raw averages are not all that flashy, his per-36-minute equivalents of 10.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks look monstrous.
The advanced analytics don't necessarily favor Gobert for his counting stats anyway but instead for his strong defensive presence. He has finished second in defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) in each of the last two seasons, while holding a 4.7 mark for his career. Considering stats like VORP and nERD take defense into account at a comparable level to offense, it's easy to see why guys like Gobert, Gorgui Dieng, and Mason Plumlee show up at the top of our re-draft rankings, despite not being flashy scorers.
Everyone's favorite up-and-comer, Giannis Antetokounmpo, comes in at number four. He falls behind the top three as a bit of a late bloomer, but he gets a pass for that, considering he was the youngest player to come out of the draft. His 3.2 VORP in 2015-16 was the second highest single-season mark by anyone from the 2013 draft in any season since, trailing only Gobert's 4.3 in 2014-15.
Giannis is still only 21, and his future is brighter than just about anyone else's from this underwhelming class, based on last season alone. After all, it's not every day that a 6'11" point guard who can defend all five positions emerges averaging 16.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game in his age 21 season, while shooting 50.6% from the field. Re-draft this class by VORP in a few years and Antetokounmpo will almost certainly come out on top.
C.J. McCollum is a notable omission from the top 10, but that is mostly because he only had his breakout season last year, when he was named the NBA's Most Improved Player. He averaged 20.8 points in 34.8 minutes per game in 2015-16, compared to 6.1 points in 14.1 minutes per game over 103 games (and only three starts) through his first two seasons. Much like Antetokounmpo, McCollum will creep his way up this list with each subsequent season as well.
