3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Joe Harris Over 3.5 Made Threes (-113)
It's a tall ask for someone to make four threes in a game, even Joe Harris, but the data points to supporting the over here.
He shoots 44.8% in that split without the studs, virtually the same as his 45.1% rate with them. But the minutes will go a long way toward the over. He's projected for 38.0 minutes tonight, meaning he should put up around 8.9 threes as a baseline (once adjusting for the Milwaukee Bucks' higher-than-average rate of three-point attempts allowed) -- and make 4.0.
numberFire's baseline projection for Harris is 3.9 makes on 7.9 attempts.
Using even that 3.9 mark and Harris' usual three-point variance, he is rating out as 60.3% likely to get to four made treys, suggesting the over odds should be -152.
Khris Middleton Over 4.5 Assists (-120)
Our model is quite big on Khris Middleton's assist total tonight, projecting him for 4.9 across 37.9 minutes (0.13 per minute).
His full-season rate has actually been higher at 0.16. However, he has been at only 0.09 in the series against the Brooklyn Nets, which should make this a situation to exploit.
At his baseline projection, Middleton is rating out as 58.8% likely to hit the over on his prop, which would imply -143 odds on the over.
Blake Griffin Under 6.5 Rebounds (-122)
Blake Griffin has been rebounding well in this series thus far: 14, 8, 7, and 5 rebounds, meaning he has gone over this prop in three of four contests.
But numberFire's projection for him tonight is only 5.9 boards across 25.5 minutes. Griffin has averaged 28.9 minutes per game in this series, for what it's worth.
Griffin's per-minute rebounding numbers without Harden and Kyrie are 0.21 per minute, which would require him to play 33.3 minutes to get to 7.0 rebounds, assuming he holds that rate steadily.
A simulation of Griffin's rebounding numbers point to a 57.5% probability he falls under 7.0 rebounds, suggesting under odds of -135.