NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/26/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jalen Brunson Under 19.5 Points (-122)
There is good value here, according to our model.
In the first four games of this series, Jalen Brunson has gone over this line twice and under it twice. However, one of the overs was just 20 points, and Brunson has been shooting the ball pretty well. He's hit 9 of 20 three-pointers through four games, which is good for a 45.0% clip. In the regular season, he made only 37.3% from deep, and he has never been better than 40.5% from three in a season.
Brunson is due for negative regression from three, and like we just said above, even with his hot shooting, Brunson gone for 20-plus points just twice across four games versus the Golden State Warriors.
On top of that, the Dubs have done a good job limiting Brunson's shot attempts. For the series, he's got just a 23.7% usage rate. He posted a 27.0% usage rate last round versus the Phoenix Suns.
Our model has Brunson netting 16.3 points, and we have the under on his points prop as one of the best props of the night.
Draymond Green 7+ Assists/Warriors Win (+164)
Let's start with what should be the gimmie in this player performance double -- a Golden State win.
The Dubs are listed as 7.0-point favorites with a -295 price on the moneyline. The -295 odds imply win odds of 74.7%. Playing at home with a chance to book a spot in the NBA Finals, the Warriors are heavy favorites in Game 5.
Draymond Green getting to at least seven assists is more of a toss-up, but he's due for a bump in dimes.
Despite going under seven assists in every game of this series -- three, five, five and six -- Green has been a good facilitator for the Warriors. Through four games, he's averaging 10.7 potential assists, per NBA.com, but he's tallied just 5.3 actual assists. His adjusted assists per night is 7.7.
In short, Green has been unlucky not to have more assists. We took advantage of that in Game 4 with a winning bet on Green's points plus assists total. This is another route to exploiting it.
We project Green for 7.4 helpers in Game 5.
