The 13 Best Values in Fantasy Football Drafts

Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers

It's easy to see why folks aren't high on Torrey Smith in 2016. He finished with just 663 yards last year. He has just one season -- out of five -- with more than 900 yards receiving. He's got Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick throwing him passes.

You don't have to be high on Smith, though, to see why he's on this list.

There are two big things at play here: Chip Kelly and negative game scripts.

We'll start with Kelly. While coaching Philadelphia, his up-tempo offense ranked 13th, 1st, and 3rd in total offensive plays run. A big reason there was such a discrepancy from 2013 (13th) and 2014 (1st) despite finishing with 10-6 records both seasons was quarterback play. Nick Foles was a God-like creature in 2013, finishing as the fourth-most efficient passer in the NFL. In 2014, the team ranked 16th in per-pass efficiency -- there was a higher need to continue to run at a fast pace to make up for the inefficiency.

Over Kelly's three seasons, the Eagles were 24th, 9th, and 6th in total receptions made by any player on the offense. As you can see, this directly correlates to where the team ranked in total plays run.

So here's the question you have to ask yourself: Are the 49ers going to be good this year? Our numbers sure as hell don't think so, as our nERD metric has them ranked as the third-worst team in the NFL.

They'll be facing a lot of negative game scripts -- scripts where they'll be losing -- which means both the number of plays run and the number of passes run should be more in line with Kelly's last season in Philly versus his first one. In an offense with very little competition, Torrey Smith stands to benefit the most.

And it doesn't hurt that, under Kelly, both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin posted top-12 wide receiver seasons in fantasy football.

Given the volume that could be sent his way, there's no reason Torrey Smith should be the 45th wide receiver selection this year.