4 Players to Stash in Fantasy Football From the AFC South
Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Titans
The Player
Justin Hunter will have to retire from the NFL before I stop believing in his potential as a player. And even then, I will likely blame every NFL coach that failed him rather than the player himself. In fact, if Hunter makes an impact in 2016, I would presume it is because he follows the path of Dorial Green-Beckham and is either traded or cut and signed by a team that wants to try and resuscitate his once promising career.
Once a top-75 college recruit to Tennessee, Hunter looked like a future star after a freshman season that saw him average 25.9 yards a catch and score 7 touchdowns. In his first two games of the 2011 season, Hunter had 16 receptions for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. He tore his ACL the next week, but returned as a junior to dominate once again with 1083 yards and nine touchdowns.
After a fantastic NFL Combine, Hunter was selected by the Titans with the 34th overall pick:
| Name | Hght | Wght | 40 yd | Vert | Broad | 3Cone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6' 4" | 211 | 4.48 | 34½" | 126" | 6.91 |
| Justin Hunter | 6' 4" | 196 | 4.44 | 39½" | 136" | 7.19 |
| Chris Henry | 6' 4" | 197 | 4.5 | 36" | ||
| Sidney Rice | 6' 4" | 200 | 4.51 | 39½" | 119" | 7.09 |
While lanky and lacking in NFL strength, Hunter's game resembles the deep ability of Randy Moss and A.J. Green, with his ability to track the ball deep or snag the ball at its highest point seeming effortless at times. Of course, his sloppy route running and reluctance to go over the middle have limited his growth and the Titans belief in the young receiver, but his coachable traits are exceptional.
Perhaps the trade of Green-Beckham will be just the wake-up call Hunter needs to revive his career...even if it isn't with the Titans.
The Opportunity
When attempting to peg a breakout receiver, you generally want to stay away from offenses that are nicknamed "exotic smashmouth." The Titans have made no secret of their desire to be a run first, run second offense, tailoring the design to the skills of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry. And if the preseason is any indication, they may just be successful in that plan.
But that leaves us attempting to see where the targets may fall in a conservative offense led by Marcus Mariota, a player who certainly has the ability to be a successful passer, but who really struggled to throw the ball downfield as a rookie. According to ESPN Stats and Info, on passes of 20 yards or more Mariota was 35th -- dead last -- among qualifying quarterbacks, with a 16.7 percent completion percentage.
Hunter's career has been a roller coaster as well, with outstanding efficiency on a per target basis as a rookie (0.94 Reception Net Expected Points, or NEP, per target) and a rough effort in his second season (0.65). In 2015, he rebounded somewhat as a part time player, improving his catch rate to 70.97% (from the low 40s his first two seasons) and 22 receptions. Yet his yards per reception dropped from 17.8 in 2014 (and 19.7 as a rookie) to just 12.0 last season, demonstrating the conservatism of both the offense and his quarterback's inability to get him the ball downfield. Despite the fact that Hunter's greatest asset is his ability to make plays downfield!
Hunter has now fallen behind Rishard Matthews, rookie Tajae Sharpe, and presumably Andre Johnson for targets in this offense, not to mention the Titans leading receiver last season in tight end Delanie Walker.
While I love Hunter as a prospect, if he remains on the Titans, he isn't a player I will be adding on any teams. It isn't often that you are rooting for a player to get cut. This is one of those rare moments.
