Fantasy Football: 10 Players Who Won't Live Up to the Hype

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

I still can't believe that Devonta Freeman did what he did last year by finishing as fantasy football's top running back, but really, it makes sense in hindsight given how bad the rush defenses were at the time of his brief dominance.

From Weeks 3 to 7 last year, Freeman balled out to the tune of 33.9 PPR points per game. Outside of that split, he averaged 15.7 points per game. That's not a terrible total by any means, but that would have placed him as roughly the RB10 on a points-per-game basis.

"So what? He's being drafted as the RB8. It's not a big deal."

That's true, inside voice, but Freeman has been dreadful from an analytics standpoint outside of his brief outlier stint. Over a full season, no player can produce like he did in that magical stretch, but when he wasn't being an anomaly, Freeman has been bad as a rusher, posting one of the worst Rushing Success Rates in our database as a rookie. His rate after Week 11 last year (29.90% on 97 carries) would have ranked 52nd among 55 backs with at least 75 carries on the season.

He just doesn't have the rushing ability to be a workhorse back, according to the metrics.

His receiving ability (he ranked fifth in Reception NEP among running backs) and Tevin Coleman's inability to take advantage of Atlanta's willingness to split time between he and Freeman gives 2015's top running back value, but don't expect him to be the type of reliable option he was in 2015 after taking over as the starter.