5 NFL Players Whose 2015 Metrics Should Be Ignored Entering 2016
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
Isaiah Crowell has had an interesting offseason with many seeing him as a likely cut candidate after an unfortunate post on social media and times with some seeing him as a potential sleeper candidate. While his ADP has risen some in the past month from the ninth round to the middle of the eighth round, the metrics do him no favors.
According to NEP, Crowell's 2015 season was average at best, and his Rushing NEP per rush of -0.06 put him on par with the disappointing Eddie Lacy and Chris Johnson. And considering he only saw 22 targets alongside the more proficient Duke Johnson (75 targets), his lack of usage in the passing game limits his upside if he isn't anything more than average as a runner.
But in Hue Jackson I trust, and the new Cleveland Browns coaching staff is just one reason I'm ignoring the metrics and reaching to own Crowell on my fantasy teams. In 2010 and 2011, Jackson helped Darren McFadden become a 1,000-yard rusher, and Michael Bush fell just 23 yards short of that mark despite only starting nine games.
As the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015, Jackson saw Jeremy Hill rush for 1,918 yards and 20 touchdowns in a timeshare role with Giovani Bernard. Hill regressed as a sophomore, but the team still gave him every opportunity to be a valuable part of their offense as the power back that Jackson seems to covet.
In Cleveland, Jackson inherits an almost identical running back situation, with Crowell in the Hill role and Johnson in the Bernard role. So will that all of a sudden make Crowell a valuable player? It could, but it's not the only factor that raises his ceiling.
First, there's the fact that Bernard was a much more effective runner than Duke Johnson in 2015, and his 0.01 Rushing NEP per rush far exceeded the ineffective rookie out of Miami (-0.09). This allowed him to steal carries from Hill, something Johnson is less likely to do if Crowell can even maintain his current level of effectiveness. Johnson averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season and struggled to break tackles and find space as a between-the-tackles runner. Because of this, expect the Browns to lean on Crowell as their primary runner.
And then there's new quarterback Robert Griffin III, who, when healthy, has always been a boon for his running backs due to his ability to run from read option sets. Alfred Morris thrived with Griffin under center, rushing for 1,616 yards in 2012 and 1,275 the following season. Will Griffin create a similar amount of space for Crowell? Most likely not to that extent, due to his hesitancy to expose himself to contact after multiple injures, but the threat will still exist for defenses to honor.
If Jackson can miraculously return the Cleveland offense to competency, there is certainly room for Crowell to grow as a player and outperform his metrics.
