5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1
Green Bay Packers Passing Offense
We're hearing tons of hype about the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, and Oakland Raiders heading into this week, and it's hard to blame people for doing that. They all have tremendous matchups, and we'll even circle back around to one of them just a bit later.
But does anybody else feel as if the Green Bay Packers are flying too far under the radar?
Aaron Rodgers has now had eight seasons with at least 200 drop backs, and before last year's injury-laden campaign, he had never finished outside the top 10 in Passing NEP per drop back among qualified passers. He has been a top-five quarterback in terms of efficiency in six of those eight years, and now that he has Jordy Nelson back, there's no reason to believe he won't do it again in 2016.
Why, then, aren't the Packers getting more buzz?
The matchup here is ripe for the picking. The Jacksonville Jaguars finished 27th last year in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, putting them just behind the elite defenses of the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and -- yes -- the Colts. They do pick up a pair of first-round picks in Jalen Ramsey and Dante Fowler, but this defense was more than two pieces away from competing.
The over/under of 48 in this matchup -- the fifth-highest on the slate -- also plays to your favor. Because it's not above 50 like a few other games, it may not stand out as people scan the lines looking for an edge. However, the Packers' implied team total of 26.25 is just 1 point lower than the Colts' leading mark of 27.25. Vegas wants you to use the Packers, but ownership on them doesn't figure to be overwhelming.
More often than not, it's better to pay for a mid-range quarterback in a tournament because they have similar ceilings on a weekly basis to the elite names. This week, though, Rodgers might be a tremendously fun option. The value on the slate will allow you to afford him without handicapping yourself elsewhere. Additionally, Dak Prescott figures to consume the majority of the ownership at the position while guys like Andrew Luck suck eyeballs away from Rodgers among the high-priced options. If sentiment shifts toward Rodgers as the week progresses, then Luck would likely be the better tournament play, but Rodgers doesn't figure to see the ownership he deserves.
You've also got abundant options in the passing game from which you can choose. Nelson's concerns about potentially being on a snap count will suppress his ownership, and Randall Cobb is priced right near Amari Cooper, who figures to be one of the more popular plays on the slate. They won't fly under the radar by any means, but they're also not going to be chalk options.
Finally, it's difficult to not give Jared Cook a long, hard look. The Jaguars allowed four separate tight ends to finish in the top two in weekly scoring at the position last year. Cook is now on a high-powered offense with a large implied team total. That's likely enough to overcome the risk he carries.
