5 Fantasy Football Studs Who Started Slow in Week 1: Should We Panic?

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

For those on the East Coast (or, really, anywhere) who managed to keep their eyes open during Monday night's dreadful showing from the Los Angeles Rams, the pathetic showing of Todd Gurley and the Case Keenum-led Ram's was on full display. The team managed only 185 net yards and zero points in a 28-0 loss to what many assumed would be a disappointing 49ers defense.

Gurley managed just 47 yards on 17 attempts and was invisible in the passing game, nabbing only one early reception for a loss of five yards.

But basic statistics are not the only way we can evaluate player performance. At numberFire, we have a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP), which compares a player's production to league expectation level. You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

In terms of Rushing NEP per rush, Gurley's -0.24 was poor, but if you watched the game, it was evident that much of his struggles were beyond his control. The passing offense was inept, allowing the 49ers to not only stack the box, but get a running start at the snap with no need to respect Keenum's arm. The young quarterback finished with a Passing NEP per pass of -0.42, by far the worst of Week 1.

That said, Gurley had much of his success last season with Nick Foles under center, and his 2015 Passing NEP per pass of -0.17 was by far the worst in the NFL for players with more than 200 drop backs. The question isn't whether the young back can be effective in a bad offense (he can), it's will he return the investment of the high first round pick you spent to get him? Or is trading him when his value is still high a worthwhile option?

In my view, what will still separate Gurley from many backs in football is volume. Even in a dreadful game where the Rams trailed from the start, they still gave their star back 17 carries. Only 13 backs achieved that mark in Week 1, and many may struggle to replicate that if their teams find themselves losing early.

Gurley is one of the most talented backs in the league and will be fed the ball, regardless of who is under center. He may not be due for a monster season that many expected, but volume should still allow him to be a top-12 running back this season.