5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 3
Green Bay Packers Rushing Offense
Our harsh reactions don't have to exclusively stem from what's gone down the first two weeks. Ask any Eddie Lacy season-long owner from last year their thoughts on him, and the FCC will be all up in that conversation in a matter of seconds.
Everything about his matchup this week with the Detroit Lions, though, is saying that he's bound to burst on the scene for 2016, and we should be paying attention to the signs.
The first -- before we even touch on the analytics -- is the spread. With the Green Bay Packers favored by 7.5 points, it's clear that Vegas thinks the Packers will have ample opportunities to run the football and score points. That plays into Lacy's hands, and it's not necessarily a luxury the Packers have had this year with a pair of close games.
Second, of course, is the matchup. Through two weeks, the Lions are 30th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, a continuation of last year when they were 22nd in the same stat. This hasn't resulted in running backs racking up fantasy points against the Lions because the Indianapolis Colts trailed long enough to abandon the rushing game in Week 1, and the Tennessee Titans used a bit of a committee approach in Week 2. Lacy could spin all of that around in Week 3.
Lacy's 2015 metrics were far better than those of James Starks, and Lacy is looking good so far this year. He is 12th in Rushing NEP per carry among 42 backs with at least 15 carries, and 12 of his 26 rushes came against the Minnesota Vikings, who are currently numberFire's top-ranked rush defense.
Looking at Lacy's usage through the first two weeks can inspire a bit of worry. He was only on the field for 49.3% of the team's snaps in Week 2, edging Starks by only 5 snaps. That's much lower than we'd ideally like.
The caveat with that is the Packers trailed for the entire second half, a game flow that is more conducive to Starks. They shouldn't face that this week as they head home with a rush-friendly spread in their favor, giving us additional faith that Lacy's usage should improve.
Lacy's price of $7,300 on FanDuel is right between the workhorse, Matt Forte, and the rising star in a big matchup, Melvin Gordon. That should allow you to snag Lacy at low ownership, and in this matchup, that's a beautiful notion.
