Week 5 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
Over/Under: 46.50
Browns Implied Team Total: 18.00
Patriots Implied Team Total: 28.50
This game's over/under isn't attention grabbing, but the New England Patriots' slate-high 28.5-point implied team total is certainly enticing. And, oh, yeah, they also just got that Brady fella back, who's supposed to be pretty good at this football thing.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $8,700
Regardless of your thoughts on the Angry Tom Brady narrative, it's impossible to deny what a great spot Tom Brady is in this week. The Cleveland Browns have allowed the prestigious combination of Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins to average 271 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns against them, after allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2015.
While most teams limit their quarterback's passing attempts in blowouts, that has not been the case for Bill Belichick. In 14 games that the Pats have won by at least 10 points (they're favored by 10.5 points this week) over the past three seasons, Brady has still been allowed to chuck it 36.4 times per game. He's also averaged 36 more passing yards and 0.8 more passing touchdowns in those games.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $7,000
Julian Edelman has struggled to get much going catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, but let's not forget that he ranked 8th in FanDuel points per game (15.8) among wide receivers last season when catching passes from Brady. Thanks to his early-season struggles, Edelman's price has dropped to just 21st among wide receivers.
If we are expecting big things from Brady in this matchup, we should look no further than his number one receiver -- the most highly-correlated position with quarterback success. In games Brady scored at least 25 FanDuel points last year, Edelman was largely responsible for it, averaging 7.6 catches on 10.8 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Edelman has also performed better when New England has won by at least 10 points, averaging 1.7 more FanDuel points per game. If stacking anyone with Brady, Edelman is the logical way to go.
Others to Consider
Chris Hogan hasn't performed particularly well with the backups either, but he is the clear number-two receiver for the Pats. He has actually out-snapped Edelman over the past two weeks, playing 91% of their offensive snaps. He's also the second-most targeted among New England receivers. It's risky to roll with him before seeing how the target distribution will shake out with Brady at the helm, but at just $5,000, it's a risk that could pay off.
The game script theoretically sets up very nicely for LeGarrette Blount, who may be low owned following a disappointing game in Week 4. It's unlikely that New England rides him as heavily with Brady back, but he's not a bad tournament option given New England's 28.5-point implied total.
