Week 5 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
Over/Under: 47.0
Steelers Implied Team Total: 27.00
Jets Implied Team Total: 20.00
This matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets doesn't feature an elite over/under, but it could very easily turn into a shootout as it features two teams both ranked in the bottom half of the league in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this season. The Jets come in ranked 30th in said metric, which leads us to our first correlation play.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $8,600
In addition to ranking third-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP, the Jets rank dead last in opposing quarterback completion percentage (71.4%) and yards per attempt (9.7). For some reference, the next highest yards per attempt allowed is 8.9, and the league average is 7.3. They are also one of the league's true "funnel defenses," allowing just 3.1 yards per carry -- the second-fewest in the NFL.
Enter Ben Roethlisberger, who just got another elite pass-catcher in the form of Le'Veon Bell and is coming off of a five-touchdown performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. This game will also be played at Heinz Field, where Big Ben has some pretty extreme splits over the past few years. Check out his jump in production in home games in which there was at least a 47-point over/under over the past three seasons.
The games become even more ridiculous when you filter out games Bell hasn't played in during that span. In six games in the previous criteria in which Bell played, Roethlisberger's average line jumped to 29 for 42 for 363 yards and 3.5 touchdowns.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $9,600
A full-on Roethlisberger-Bell-Antonio Brown stack is certainly in play after watching Le'Veon see 6 targets and finish with 178 yards in his first week back, but their salaries make lineup construction very difficult. Given New York's elite run defense, Brown is likely the preferable pairing option with Big Ben.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), just one of the five Jets defensive backs with at least 100 snaps has a coverage grade above 50 (out of 100). That player is Buster Skrine, who has covered the slot on 78% of his snaps. The slot is generally occupied by Markus Wheaton for Pittsburgh, with Brown running 87% of his snaps on the perimeter. Brown gets to run the majority of his routes against Darrelle Revis and Marcus Williams, who both rank in the bottom-12, per PFF, in coverage grade among all projected starting corners for this week.
In addition to an excellent individual matchup, Brown has been dominant in home games with at least a 47-point over/under over the past three seasons. In those nine games, Brown has averaged 8.3 receptions on 12.8 targets for 117 yards and 1.2 touchdowns, good for 23.5 FanDuel points per game.
Others to Consider
The Jets have really been struggling offensively in their past two games, but Brandon Marshall was fed 12 targets with Eric Decker out last week. He'll spend the majority of his time matched up with William Gay, who has played well this year but is at a 6-inch and 43-pound size disadvantage. In games the Jets have lost since the beginning of last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick's pass attempts per game have jumped to 37 while Marshall has seen his targets bumped to 11.7 per game. Pairing Marshall with Roethlisberger and/or Brown makes a lot of sense from a correlation perspective, too, as opposing number-one receivers are the second-most highly correlated position with a quarterback scoring 25-plus FanDuel points, per Raybon's article on stacking.
Slot receiver Quincy Enunwa is worth a look as a cheaper way to game stack with Pittsburgh's passing offense. He has actually outscored Marshall on the year and will face slot man Sean Davis, whose 39.1 PFF coverage grade is the third-worst among qualified safeties and would rank fifth-worst among cornerbacks.
