Fantasy Football: 4 Things We Learned From Week 8
Russell Wilson Owners Need a Backup Plan
Russell Wilson owners have been patiently waiting for him to explode the way he did in the second half of the 2015 season. Over the last seven games of the 2015 season, Wilson averaged 28.2 fantasy points per game. And if ever there was a game to make things right, this one was it, going up against the hapless New Orleans Saints' 29th-ranked pass defense.
But after Week 8, it’s fair to wonder whether the Wilson resurrection will actually come this season.
Part of Wilson's safety as a fantasy football quarterback has been his running ability. He averaged 37.97 rushing yards per game in his career headed into 2016. But an MCL sprain suffered in Week 3 has severely limited that facet of his game, to the point where he's averaging 5.5 rushing yards per game this season.
And using numberFire's signature in-house performance metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), it's clear that he's not been that much of a threat with his arm either. NEP measures a player's performance above-or-under expectation using down-and-distance data in historically similar situations. You can learn more about NEP by checking out our glossary.
In 2015, Wilson accumulated a 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back in 2015, good for third in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 350 drop backs. Wilson's sporting a 0.14 Passing NEP per drop back this season. That's not even half as efficient as he was in 2015, and it's just barely above the league average of 0.13.
Wilson's MCL sprain is certainly weighing on his real and fantasy football output, and it's putting his fantasy owners in a pickle. While dropping him isn't advisable yet, given the upside he can bring to the table, it'd be smart to look for better streaming options until he shows signs of life.