Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 12

Start the Chiefs Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 12, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The total for this game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos opened at a very low total of 40.5 points, and it has already dropped to 39.5, the lowest total on the weekend slate. Last week, the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams battled in a game where the total was 39 points, and the final score was only 14-10. Both defenses finished in the top nine for scoring in Week 11.

Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. When the total was 39.5 or lower, the defenses averaged 8.75 points per game. There were only 8 games with this low of a total last season.

Another favorable trend for this defense is that Kansas City games have gone under the total in eight out of 10 times this season.

The Denver D/ST is a terrific play in this situation as a home favorite in a game with a low total, but they are the second-most expensive D/ST on FanDuel at $4,900. The Kansas City D/ST is priced at $4,500, the 12th-most expensive D/ST, making them a cost-effective option for both cash games and tournaments.