5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Oakland Raiders Rushing Offense
This entire season, Lesean McCoy has been unleashing straight Gucciness on the league. He has three multi-touchdown games, including one last week as part of a 144-yard outing. He's in a great matchup this week against a struggling Oakland Raiders rush defense, so it's time to lock and load Shady once again.
As long as we don't forget his counterpart on the other sideline, that is.
All year, Latavius Murray has been trying to break free of this running back by committee in Oakland, attempting to regain the bellcow role he filled last year. He didn't fully end the competition last week, but his 66.2% snap rate in that one was his highest the entire year. If you can get a dependable back behind that offensive line, good things will happen. That's what we've seen with Murray when he has gotten opportunities this year.
Of the 38 running backs with at least 80 carries, Murray ranks fourth in Rushing NEP per carry. The only guys ahead of him are Jay Ajayi, Ezekiel Elliott, and -- naturally -- McCoy. Murray is also ninth in Success Rate, so his metrics aren't simply inflated by his knack for finding the end zone.
Speaking of which, the Raiders love them some Latavius when they get in close. He had seven red-zone carries in Week 12, six in Week 9, and five in Week 7. His 37.7% red-zone market share (the percentage of overall opportunities) over the past five games ranks right behind the aforementioned Elliott and -- you guessed it -- McCoy. His snap rate is giving him a floor, and his red-zone involvement gives him an envious ceiling.
This is all before we even discuss his matchup. The Buffalo Bills' defense got off to a solid start this year, but things have hit the pooper in a big way recently. They are 31st in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play since Week 7, besting only the San Francisco 49ers over that span. The table below shows how running backs have fared against them in the two splits.
| Split | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Six Games | 137 | -12.70 | -0.09 |
| Past Five Games | 115 | 5.53 | 0.05 |
Chris Ivory was on his way to a big game against them last week with 9 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown before an injury cut his day short, and no running back with at least 80 carries has a worse Rushing NEP per carry this year than Ivory. Murray's spewing efficiency. He should be able to feast against these Bills.
Murray's just $6,700 this week, a price that will allow you to pay up for some studly wide receivers. Given the upside he carries, that should be more than enough to move the needle.
