Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned From Week 13
Lamar Miller's Been Tough to Trust, But Don't Sit Him
Lamar Miller has had a rough season. Once an underutilized, yet fairly efficient back stuck with the Miami Dolphins, Miller's been a mirror image of his former self with the Houston Texans; an over-utilized, inefficient running back.
Looking at Miller's career numbers, we can see how his performance has declined from previous seasons in Miami.
| Season | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Rush | Rushing Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 51 | 4.15 | 0.08 | 43.14% |
| 2013 | 177 | -17.55 | -0.10 | 37.85% |
| 2014 | 215 | 13.69 | 0.06 | 47.44% |
| 2015 | 194 | -2.16 | -0.01 | 39.69% |
| 2016 | 219 | -18.62 | -0.09 | 34.25% |
Miller's already eclipsed his career low in Rushing NEP and is close to doing so in per-rush efficiency, posting a -0.09 Rushing NEP per rush this season. His Rushing Success Rate – the percentage of runs contributing positive NEP – is also at a career low.
He's been nursing a few injuries, including ankle and ribs injuries that have hurt his effectiveness in recent weeks, including Week 13, when he briefly left the game in the first quarter. His situation isn't helped by having the lowly Brock Osweiler under center. After a 14-carry, 22-yard performance on the ground against the Green Bay Packers, it's understandable that owners are panicking.
While you're right to be concerned, it's best to wait at least one more week to see how Miller bounces back. He's only seen less than 15 carries in three games this season, and running back workloads like that don't grow on trees.
Miller's awful performance on Sunday came against the Packers' seventh-ranked run defense. However, the Texans have a very soft run defense schedule the rest of the season, squaring off against the 25th-ranked Indianapolis Colts, the 24th-ranked Jacksonville Jaguars, the 22nd-ranked Cincinnati Bengals, and the 18th-ranked Tennessee Titans per numberFire metrics.
If he can't make it rain against the Colts in Week 14, who he shredded for 149 yards on the ground back in Week 6, you’ve really got a problem.
If Miller is looking like he'll suit up this weekend, try not to let his recent underwhelming performances clutter your decision making. If there's any time for him to heat back up, it'd be in the coming weeks with a dream schedule on tap.
