Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 15

Start the Dolphins Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 15, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Miami Dolphins are 2.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets, and this Saturday tilt is interesting because of the dwindling game total. The game opened at a low total of 40.5 and has already plummeted to 37.5 points, which is currently the lowest total of the season.

Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. There were no games with a lower total than 39 points. In that same year, if the total dropped 3 points or more throughout the week, defenses involved scored an average of 8.92 fantasy points per game.

The Miami D/ST is priced at $4,500, tied for the 12th-most expensive D/ST, making them a cost-effective option for both cash games and tournaments.