5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Washington Passing Offense
On any other week, we'd be avoiding the New York Giants' defense by whatever means necessary. They're sixth overall against the pass this year, and they'd be even better if we narrowed that scope over a more recent stretch. However, Week 17 ain't yo daddy's average week of DFS, and with the Giants locked into the 5 seed in the NFC, they could be resting the beasts that brought them there. That's all the motivation we need to roll out Kirk Cousins once again.
In Week 16, the Giants were without star cornerback Janoris Jenkins as he dealt with a back bruise. Jenkins was limited in practice Wednesday, but he's not a lock to play Sunday. His absence would be a huge boost for Cousins and company.
Without Jenkins in Week 16, the Giants allowed Carson Wentz to post 3.60 Passing NEP on 24 drop backs. That may not sound great, but in the previous 10 games, Wentz had a combined -18.55 Passing NEP, and he had only been above zero twice. If Jenkins' absence can elevate Wentz, it can absolutely make Cousins a realistic option.
Cousins is entering Week 17 ranked fifth in Passing NEP per drop back and fourth in Success Rate of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He has 79.17 Passing NEP over the past nine games, more than Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers have for the entire season. From an efficiency standpoint, not many in the league have been better than Cousins this season, and that translates over into his fantasy output.
In 15 games, Cousins has had at least 25 points on FanDuel four separate times, including last week against the Chicago Bears. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have hit that mark six times, and Tom Brady is the only other person above Cousins with five. Brady and Rodgers are the two most expensive quarterbacks on FanDuel this week, and you can snag Cousins for $7,900 in a must-win game for Washington to make the playoffs. That doesn't sound like too bad of a deal at all.
The Giants will likely be subtracting pieces with the playoffs locked up, and Washington may be trending the opposite direction.
TE Jordan Reed (shoulder) limited in practice, making progress a "good sign" for him to play Sunday, Gruden says.
— Washington Redskins (@Redskins) December 28, 2016
Jordan Reed's not an option for DFS with the uncertainty around his shoulder, but gaining a top-tier weapon would only help the offense's efficiency and Cousins' outlook. Track Reed's status throughout the week, and if he's able to go, give Cousins another bump up the ladder.
When stacking with Cousins, your two main options are DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. We'll start with the cheaper of the two, and that's Garcon all the way down at $5,600.
In seven games since Washington's bye, Garcon has had at least nine targets three times, helping him post a 21.49% target market share over that time. Jackson's at 18.66% in the six games he has played in that span, giving Garcon the edge when we're seeking safety. Combining this with Garcon's bargain pricing pushes the needle a bit further in his favor.
Jackson's upside is hard to fully fade, though. He has 100 receiving yards in three consecutive games and four of the past five, and Garcon has hit that mark just once this year. If you've got the salary to spend, Jackson's worth the price at $7,000.
