5 AFC Championship X-Factors for the Steelers and Patriots
4. The New England Rush Defense
One of the more interesting stats I came across this week was from Mike Reiss, as he noted that the Patriots haven't allowed a 90-yard rusher over their last 24 games. Sure, New England's seen plenty of positive game scripts, which will limit the amount of rushes an opposing team runs. In fact, only the Titans and Cowboys faced fewer rush attempts against them this year.
But it's hard to ignore what the Steelers will want to do in this game, and that's run Le'Veon Bell into the ground. Take a look at Bell's numbers before and after this current Steelers win streak (keep in mind, Bell missed the first three games of the season due to suspension and sat Week 17):
| Le'Veon Bell | Rushes | Yards | Yards/Attempt | Yards/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 6 Games | 100 | 433 | 4.33 | 72.17 |
| Last 8 Games | 220 | 1,172 | 5.33 | 146.5 |
Of course, just like New England's rush defense, a guy being fed the ball more than 27 times per game is going to put up good cumulative numbers. But Bell's run has been special. Not only is his yards per attempt ridiculous, but his Success Rate -- which measures the percentage of positive expected point runs made by a back -- is 50.45% over this stretch.
During the regular season, among the 19 running backs with 200 carries this year, the highest Success Rate was Ezekiel Elliott's 47.04%. And since 2000, only 11 running backs with 200-plus touches have hit Le'Veon's last eight games mark.
The winner of this battle -- Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers' rushing attack versus the New England rush defense, which was a top-10 one according to our metrics this season -- will more than likely gain a significant edge in Sunday's game.
