The 13 Most Undervalued Players in Fantasy Football

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

As much as I hate it, let's do a little stat extrapolation.

Tyrod Taylor has been the Buffalo Bills starter for two seasons now. In those two seasons, Sammy Watkins has played a grand total of 21 games, averaging 7.05 targets, 4.19 receptions, 70.33 yards, and 0.52 touchdowns per contest.

(Here comes the extrapolation...)

That line across a full, 16-game season would yield 112.80 targets, 67.04 receptions, 1,125.28 yards, and 8.32 touchdowns. All together, you're looking at about 230 PPR fantasy points across this hypothetical season, or fringe WR1 numbers.

That's about where Watkins is being drafted today -- he's WR15 on FantasyFootballCalculator.com -- but what we have to remember is that these numbers aren't coming from a fully healthy Sammy Watkins. A banged-up Watkins is producing low-end WR1 numbers.

The biggest downside for Watkins aside from his health is the fact that he's playing on a run-heavy team. Things may change a bit with a new regime in Buffalo, but the team is still built to run. But Watkins' market share, given the teammates around him, can still hover the 25% mark this season, which should yield close to 115 to 120 targets.

Those targets, too, should be high-leverage ones from a fantasy lens. In 2016, Taylor ranked 10th in the NFL among relevant quarterbacks in air yards per attempt, and he was 3rd within the statistic in 2015. That matches up well with Watkins, who, with Taylor, has averaged well over 14 air yards per reception, the best in the league among 50-plus target receivers.

You can see how and why Sammy Watkins can work in this offense.

The bottom line with drafting him is health. If you've got a good foundation at wide receiver when the time comes to select him, the risk is certainly worth the reward.