Fantasy Football: 8 Players With Easy Early-Season Schedules
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
| Week | Opponent | Projected Defensive Rush NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colts | 25 |
| 2 | Redskins | 26 |
| 3 | 49ers | 31 |
| 4 | Cowboys | 9 |
Todd Gurley's 2016 was such a flop that Alexander from the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day wouldn't want anything to do with it. His -0.12 Rushing NEP per rush ranked second-to-last among the 27 running backs with at least 150 carries, while his Rushing Success Rate -- the total number of plays that result in positive NEP -- ranked third-to-last among that same cohort.
With Jeff Fisher gone and Sean McVay in at head coach, and an upgraded offensive line with the signing of Andrew Whitworth, the Rams offense should be in for some moderate improvement. Better surroundings and offensive scheme definitely won't hurt Gurley.
But I'm on record saying that while the chances of a bounce-back season for Gurley are actually decent, the cost to get him in your draft is too risky.
However, maybe there's another way.
Looking at Gurley's early-season schedule makes me salivate. With the Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, and San Francisco 49ers making up his first three games, Gurley is slated to begin his hopeful bounce-back campaign against a trio of projected bottom-eight run defenses.
It's not hard to imagine Gurley starting hot, but his schedule tightens up significantly after Week 4, when he faces six straight top-12 projected run defenses. So if the Los Angeles Rams' offense as a whole hasn't significantly improved, Gurley will run into a slew off buzzsaw run defenses that are going to key in on the Rams' running game, just as they did in 2016.
Drafting Gurley isn't for the faint of heart. If you're willing to gamble, though, he could provide three bangers right out of the gate and be a perfect sell-high candidate before Week 4. Just hope your other league-mates aren't aware of his mid-season schedule.
