Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Positional ADP: RB43 | Projected Finish: RB52
The ADP for Thomas Rawls is puzzling. The Seattle Seahawks' running back was electrifying in 2015, but his outlook has dimmed considerably since then.
Rawls was bad last year, both in absolute terms and relative to the other backs on Seattle's roster. Now he faces competition from C.J. Prosise and Eddie Lacy. Consider their career averages.
| Full Name | Rushing NEP/P | Rushing Success Rate | Reception NEP/Target | Reception Success Rate | Total NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prosise | 0.04 | 36.7% | 0.91 | 82.4% | 18.67 |
| Lacy | 0.00 | 42.4% | 0.33 | 55.9% | 11.12 |
| Rawls | -0.02 | 36.1% | 0.28 | 58.5% | 2.75 |
Rawls' 2015 season (16.4 Total NEP) wasn't even as good as Prosise's rookie year (18.7 Total NEP). Rawls looks like the third-best RB in this group.
Prosise was a third-round draft pick, and Lacy is a significant free-agent signing. Rawls has an uphill battle for a meaningful role, let alone a fantasy-relevant one.
Instead Try
Matt Forte has a similar ADP, but we project him to finish as RB28, which means he's likely a weekly fantasy starter. Theo Riddick and Terrance West also make great options, with Riddick being especially appealing in points-per-reception (PPR) formats.
