10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates in 2017

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Last season's WR25 in PPR formats and WR32 in PPR points per game, Tyreek Hill, is expected to take over the number-one role in the Chiefs offense this year.

His ADP of WR23 is reasonable, but there are plenty of question marks surrounding him. Just 12 of the 200 receivers who finished in the top-25 in PPR scoring since 2009 did so on fewer than 100 targets. Hill had 83 in 2016. Only he and Laurent Robinson (80 targets in 2011) did so on fewer than 90 targets.

Hill produced six receiving touchdowns (but "should've" had closer to 3.19, according to NEP), and even still, just 78.54% of his fantasy points came from receiving, the lowest mark of any WR25 or better since 2009.

If you isolate his year -- because he wasn't a full-time player all season -- and look solely at the seven games during which he played at least half of the team's snaps, he averaged 14.1 PPR points per game (which would've been the WR18 mark on the full season). As a receiver, though, he averaged just 10.3 points per game in those (WR56 numbers).

His receiving PPR points per game in those were 20.2, 18.9, 10.3, 9.6, 9.3, 4.1, and 0.0.

Games such as Week 15 and 16 (8 targets, no catches, and 28.3 PPR points because of returns) buoy his 2016 season -- and highlight his ability, of course. If you're buying into Hill because of his new gig as the WR1 in Kansas City, just know that you're banking on significant improvement as a receiver. He ranked 67th among 68 receivers with at least 75 targets in Reception NEP per catch in 2016.

Oh, and the Chiefs have the third-toughest pass game schedule by our metrics and one of the toughest by SharpFootball, too.