30 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the 2017 Season
Spencer Ware Won't See More Than 180 Carries
Why This Is Bold: Ware carried the ball 214 times in 14 games last year, and he's slotted to be the Chiefs' starting running back.
Why This Will Happen: Last year, for the first time in his career -- and that includes college -- Spencer Ware saw 200 or more carries in a season. And it prompted the Chiefs to trade up in the draft to select running back Kareem Hunt in the third round.
That should scare Ware truthers a bit. He was super efficient in 2015 while part of a committee, ending the year with a 0.20 Rushing NEP per rush and a 50.00% Success Rate. Those numbers don't happen very often at all.
In 2016, his per-rush average fell to -0.07, and his Success Rate dipped to 44.86%.
Much of this had to do with a general lack of big plays.
| Year | 10+ Yard Run Rate | 20+ Yard Run Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 12.50% | 5.56% |
| 2016 | 9.35% | 1.40% |
Maybe the numbers above -- they're showing the percentage of runs that went either 10-plus or 20-plus yards -- are simple variance. But maybe -- just maybe -- it's Spencer Ware not being capable of carrying the load in the team's backfield since he's never done so throughout his collegiate and professional career.
And maybe that's why the Chiefs traded up for a running back in this year's draft.
