Fantasy Football: What Are the Odds a Specific Player Will Fall to You in Your Draft?

Tight End

Tight end is going to be similar to quarterback where the variance will increase due to the nature of the position. As such, you'll have to react accordingly during your individual draft. This can at least provide a template of when you'll need to draft the guys you're targeting.

Tight End Availability Odds: Standard Scoring

Tight End Availability Odds: PPR Scoring

For the first time since 2014, you don't need to spend a top-15 pick on Rob Gronkowski. Instead, you've got 53.98% odds of getting him with the 20th overall pick. There are reasons behind that given the saturation of weapons in the New England Patriots' offense, but a discount won't hurt matters.

The second tier of tight ends -- Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, and Jordan Reed -- all seem reasonably-priced, as well. You have a 60.23% chance of snagging Kelce near the turn between the third and fourth rounds, and both Olsen and Reed are available more than half the time at pick 50. There's still a large opportunity cost with picking them over a running back or wide receiver, but again, we won't cry over a slight dip in price.

If you want to wait, though, there are fun, low-cost options later on. Kyle Rudolph -- who led all tight ends in targets in 2016 -- is available 60.22% of the time at pick 85. A trendy breakout pick in Eric Ebron is available at pick 120 in 57.37% of drafts, and Jack Doyle is even a bit cheaper than that. So even though the costs on the top-end guys are acceptable, there may be better values the longer you wait.