Fantasy Football: The Downside for Each Top-20 Pick

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Downside: Offensive Regression

Take all of the things I said about Julio Jones and the Falcons offense, place it in here, and multiply it by two. Because the regression that's going to hit Atlanta's offense is going to be worse for Freeman than it is for Julio, as Freeman was a much more touchdown-dependent asset last season.

Freeman saw his rushing market share dip from 63.10% in 2015 (in 15 games, no less) to 53.92% last year, which resulted in 3.48 fewer carries per game. Despite this, he had six more carries within his opponents' five-yard line last season, and four more red zone attempts versus 2015. And he scored the same number of touchdowns. He ended up scoring a touchdown on every 20.63 carries, when, as noted with David Johnson, the league average at running back was a touchdown on every 31.54 attempts.

Like the other players on this list, it's not as though he can't be usable if this regression occurs. Just don't go into this year expecting similar efficiency as what we saw in 2016.