5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1

Carolina Panthers' Passing Offense

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco 49ers have worked feverishly to improve their play up front. They spent a first-round pick on DeForest Buckner in 2016, and they added both Solomon Thomas and Rueben Foster in the first round this year. But with all of that moving and shaking, their secondary still has big gaps that the Carolina Panthers could exploit.

We saw plenty of these deficiencies crop up last year. The 49ers limped to a 26th-place finish in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. It was their rush defense that generated the negative headlines, but the pass defense was nearly just as bad.

And that poor ranking came despite a respectable pass rush. They were 19th in Sack NEP per drop back on defense, and their 5.95% sack rate ranked 13th. That means that once the ball left the quarterback's hands, good things tended to happen.

Those struggles were on full display in Week 2 last year against this same Panthers team. There, Cam Newton threw for 353 yards and 4 touchdowns, and both Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin hit 100 yards through the air. In a year of disappointment for the Panthers, they still shredded this defense.

None of this matters, though, if Newton's not fully healthy. He underwent offseason shoulder surgery and attempted just two passes in the preseason as a result. With all of the juiciness at running back, it's hard to pay $7,900 for a quarterback if you aren't assured that he's 100%. That said, the arrow seems to be pointing up for Newton.

Newton's being a full participant indicates the team is confident in this guy's shoulder, and we should be, too, as a result.

We'll need that big shoulder to be healthy, too, given the way that Newton plays the game. Even while paying through injuries last year, Newton threw 20.98% of his attempts at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the seventh-highest mark in the league. He was even a smidge higher than that the previous season at 21.80%, so you know he wants to go deep, which is great for upside in DFS.

The question is which player will benefit from the changes we've seen in Carolina's crop of pass catchers this offseason. Ted Ginn Jr. is gone, and he controlled 18.80% of the team's deep targets in 2016. In total, 28.21% of the team's deep targets went to players who aren't on the 53-man roster, leaving some high-leverage opportunity up for grabs. That could mean even meatier usage down the field for Olsen and Benjamin than they already had after easily leading the team in deep targets last year.

You probably don't need any convincing to play Olsen and Benjamin. They're $6,600 and $6,500, respectively, and if you dig Newton, you dig them by extension. Devin Funchess is a bit of a tougher sell.

Consider what Funchess has going in his favor, though. He did wind up fourth on the team in deep targets last year, third among those still on the team. Those are the kinds of targets we desperately want.

The others we want are those that come close to the end zone. Funchess got those, too. He finished third on the team in red-zone targets with 13, just two behind Benjamin and three behind Olsen. A 19.70% target market share there is also the recipe for upside.

Funchess was heavily involved both in the red zone and deep down the field despite never playing more than 65.1% of the team's snaps in a single game. This preseason, that snap count swung pretty heavily in his favor.

Huh. How 'bout that?

At the end of the day, the best stacking options on this team are going to be Benjamin and Olsen. It's entirely possible that using Funchess would be just a bit too cute. But for $5,100, he gives you salary flexibility, and his role means he has some sneaky upside. For tournament rosters, it's more than worth it to at least give him a sniff.