Fantasy Football Week 4 Market Share Report: Here Comes Dez Bryant
Rushing Market Shares
1. Latavius Murray Gets an Opportunity
There are a few different ways in which following the money leads us to Latavius Murray being the next man up following Dalvin Cook's season-ending injury.
First, there's the way he was used relative to Jerick McKinnon following Cook's injury.
Vikings HB snap count after Dalvin Cook's injury:
Latavaius Murray 20
Jerick McKinnon 5
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 1, 2017
McKinnon left briefly with an ankle injury but was able to return later on. Murray finished the game with seven carries and two targets while McKinnon had two and two, respectively.
Second, there's the literal money. The team gave Murray $8.55 million in guaranteed money over the offseason after McKinnon struggled in an expanded role last year. McKinnon had been working ahead of Murray earlier in the season, but with Murray coming off of ankle surgery in March, that's not a huge surprise.
Based on what happened to the Minnesota Vikings' running backs last year following Adrian Peterson's injury, you may be hesitant to invest at all. Nobody found fantasy relevance until McKinnon gained usage in the passing game late in the season. But that was a radically different team than the 2017 version.
The Vikings spent big money on the offensive line last offseason, and it seems to be paying off so far. The quarterbacks have been sacked on just 4.32% of their drop backs this year, down from 6.07% last year. This is a much better situation now than it was in the past.
For Murray, that means a shot at a pretty decent role for fantasy. He figures to get the early-down and goal-line work for a team that has some of the best passing-game assets in the league. They're going to score points, and that will give Murray plenty of value. Until we have reason to believe otherwise, Murray's going to be an asset we can use in both season-long and daily fantasy football.
2. The Seahawks Are a Mystery Again
Just when Chris Carson seemed to be steadily on the ascent, we were all reminded how truly cruel this game can be.
Pete Carroll told 710 ESPN in Seattle that Seahawks RB Chris Carson suffered a fracture below his knee and "he's going to be out."
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 2, 2017
That's awful. Hopefully Carson's able to get back on the field in the not-so-distant future.
As far as who will replace him in the backfield, we have no definitive answers. Head coach Pete Carroll made mention of Thomas Rawls in a press conference after the game, but Rawls was a healthy scratch in Week 4 in favor of Carson, Eddie Lacy, and J.D. McKissic. If Carroll were so confident in Rawls' abilities, then it would seem logical that Rawls would have played ahead of Lacy. The actions -- the "money" in this scenario -- contradicted the words. On top of that, it looks like they'll be adding another piece back into that committee this week.
Carroll says CJ Prosise had a good pregame workout and he would be 'shocked' if Prosise can't play next Sunday against Rams.
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) October 2, 2017
Good luck deciphering this mess.
Some of these guys are likely available on your season-long league's waiver wire, and it's good to take stabs at them in case someone emerges. But you also shouldn't be blowing away tons free-agent auction budget money on them with the persistent ambiguity.
On top of that, it's hard to take advantage of their value for DFS. Sunday's usage would seem to hint that Lacy's the top option, especially with Rawls having been inactive, but Prosise's return throws a wrench in all of that. We want to exploit this situation, but for now, it may be best sit it out and let the dust settle.
3. The Eagles Are Basically a Committee
With Darren Sproles going down for the season in Week 3, there was opportunity to be had in the Philadelphia Eagles' backfield. It all got divvied up pretty evenly.
The team's running backs carried the ball 36 times in the game. No back had more than half of those with LeGarrette Blount leading the way with 16 carries. Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement both had 10. Blount grabbed the headlines thanks to a 68-yard run, but the usage was spread a bit thin.
This was even true when the team got close to the end zone. They had five carries inside the five-yard line. You'd assume that's where Blount would get the majority of the work, and he did lead them with three of those carries. But Smallwood and Clement both had one apiece, and Smallwood was the only one to hit paydirt. That's another reason to be a bit skeptical about Blount's 136-yard day.
So, who's the top back for fantasy here? Truthfully, they're all canibalizing each other a bit, but it looks like Smallwood's the best option.
Not only did Smallwood get those 10 carries, but he led the trio with 35 snaps and 6 targets. Blount played 26 snaps with Clement at 19, and neither of them had multiple targets. This role should allow Smallwood to carry fantasy relevance regardless of the game script, giving a big boost to his floor. If he can earn a few more looks near the goal line, his value will stretch into DFS, as well.