5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8

New Orleans Saints' Rushing Offense

Scouting game logs doesn't pertain to just individual players; the same can be said about looking at how a defense performs against a certain position. That's what allows us to potentially target the New Orleans Saints' running backs this week against the Chicago Bears.

If you look at how the Bears have done against running backs this year, you'll see that only one running back has topped 75 yards against them. That was Jerick McKinnon in his coming-out party in Week 5. They've held guys like Devonta Freeman and Le'Veon Bell in check, potentially leading to our avoiding the Saints this week.

That may not be entirely necessary. And to see why, we have to dig a bit deeper into those game logs.

In those game logs, you'll see that the Bears have played four games at home and three on the road. When they're at Soldier Field, they get the benefit of playing on arguably the messiest field in the league. This can slow down opposing offenses and allow them to keep rushers in check. That's not an advantage they have on the road, especially not when they're playing at the Superdome.

And this shines through in their splits, too. Check out how the Bears' defense has performed at home compared to what they have done on the road through the eyes of NEP. Rushing NEP per carry is the expected points added on a per-rush basis throughout the year, and Success Rate is the percentage of rushes that increase the team's expected points for the drive.

These are both small samples, but Success Rate will stabilize pretty quickly. When the gap is 10 percentage points, you need to pay attention.

The next question should be why, then, we haven't seen any big individual performances by running backs against Chicago when the Bears have been on the road? That 95-yard night by McKinnon came in Chicago, so why haven't opposing backs feasted against this team?

That all comes down to the opponents they have faced. The three teams to face the Bears away from Chicago this year all had committees for one reason or another. Peyton Barber took over for Jacquizz Rodgers in Week 2 after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers built a big lead, Aaron Jones entered only after both Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams had gotten hurt in Week 4, and Alex Collins and Javorius Allen had 15 and 10 carries, respectively, in Week 6. They simply haven't faced any high-volume backs on the road yet this year. That will change in Week 8.

In two games since Adrian Peterson was traded to the Arizona Cardinals, Mark Ingram has amassed a whopping 47 carries for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns. That's on top of getting five targets in each game and playing roughly 60% of the snaps. This is now a high-volume back.

It's obviously not hollow volume for Ingram, either. The Saints have the league's third-best rushing offense when you adjust for schedule, making them a mismatch for the Bears (who rank 13th) even before you account for this game being in New Orleans.

Ingram's volume has been heavily dependent on the game script with the Saints having led throughout most of the first two games in the post-Peterson era. But they're expected to do the same here as nine-point favorites. It may be boring to go with Ingram yet again, but it's necessary.

That's not to say you should completely ignore Alvin Kamara for $6,400. Kamara has also gotten a volume boost the past two weeks, averaging 14.5 opportunities per game. While Ingram will get the goal-line touches, Kamara does have six carries and six targets inside the 20-yard line this year. That means he's worth a shot, as well, if you want to pivot off of what will likely be high ownership in Ingram.