Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Assessing Kareem Hunt
Red-Zone Market Shares
1. Don't Chase Matt Forte's Big Day
When a player goes off in an island game, it's easy for your loins to get all tingly with excitement about using him in the future. With Matt Forte busting out for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns on Thursday night, he would seemingly be on the rise and ripe for the rostering. But we'd be wise to look elsewhere.
In that game, Forte led the New York Jets with 14 carries. But what you don't see in looking at that number is that Elijah McGuire had 13, and Bilal Powell had 9. This means Forte had just 38.9% of their running-back carries for the game. When you're rushing it 36 times, that's a bit more palatable, but how many times will this team be in game flow that allows them to run that often?
This split backfield spilled over into the red zone, as well. While Forte had the lone carry inside the five and two carries inside the 10, Powell had another inside the 10, and McGuire tallied three total red-zone carries. You can try to chalk that up to the score if you want, but all three of McGuire's red-zone carries came before the fourth quarter.
At the end of the day, this is a committee backfield. Week 9 doesn't change that. And when you tie a committee backfield to a mediocre offense, it's going to be hard to ever truly trust them. That's why we shouldn't go rushing to roster Forte going forward, and it's hard to want to use Powell and McGuire, too.
2. It's Hard to Predict the Rams' Receivers
Sunday was a delicious day for the Rams' receivers. Robert Woods hauled in two touchdowns, Sammy Watkins caught a 67-yard bomb, and Cooper Kupp was respectable with another 50-yard receiving day.
It doesn't make them any more fun to use in DFS.
With how efficient Jared Goff has been, we should want to get pieces of this passing offense. It's just so hard to justify it with how evenly Goff has been distributing the ball.
Here's a look at the team's top two pass catchers in each type of target this year. Again, a "deep" target is any throw that travels at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Rams' Team Leaders | Overall Market Share | Deep Market Share | Red-Zone Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Leader | Robert Woods | Robert Woods | Cooper Kupp |
| Second on Team | Cooper Kupp | Kupp/Watkins (tied) | Todd Gurley |
Kupp shows up as one of the top two guys in all three categories. But he has still managed to exceed 60 receiving yards just once, meaning you're merely hoping he hauls in a touchdown. The odds there aren't bad with his red-zone market share at 33.3%, but the yardage upside leaves plenty to be desired.
Woods has a steady floor with five targets in six consecutive games and yardage upside with his deep targets, but he has just 11.1% of the team's red-zone targets. That's why it's not surprising that those two touchdowns for Woods were his first two of the season. We can go at him in hopes of a big play, and he's likely the best asset here, but it's not as if he's perfect.
Then there's Watkins. Oh boy. He did get two deep targets Sunday, but they were his only targets of the game. He also played a season-low 51.6% of the snaps, well below his mark of 83.8% in their final game before the bye. You're not feeling too secure in using that, either, especially with how sporadic his usage has been.
This makes it hard to stack Goff with any of the receivers when you want to use him in DFS. If Goff goes off, you run the risk of having a lineup ruined if the looks don't go Woods' way that day. As such, Goff's best stacking partner may just be Todd Gurley, who has 16.7% of the team's targets this year. You'd essentially be bottling up exposure to each touchdown the team scores without taking the risks associated with the receivers, making this the likely ideal path going forward.
