Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 11

Avoid A.J. Green in a Game With a Low Over/Under

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2.5-point underdogs against the bumbling Broncos, who have lost five games in a row, yet are still favored.

What scares me off most offensive players in this game is the low total of 39 points. Even elite players like A.J. Green have struggled in games with severely low totals.

In 11 games with a lousy total of 41 points or lower, Green has averaged just 10.72 half-PPR points per game.

The matchup versus the No Fly Zone is uninviting, but Green's price dropped to $7,800 on FanDuel, which is his lowest price since mid-September. This would make most players think he is a value, but past performances indicate he is not safe to start in any format.