Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 15

Avoid Drew Brees as a Heavy Favorite

The logic here is that the Saints, who are the largest favorites of the weekend, should hold the Jets in a circling pattern all game long. The Saints have the fifth-highest point differential in the NFL. A blowout here would not surprise anyone, but the Saints are playing differently this season.

The rushing attack has been the catalyst to their success. It has allowed Drew Brees to pass less but more efficiently. The problem with that is Brees isn't as reliable as he used to be in fantasy football. Last season, Brees passed 40 or more times in a game 10 times. This season, he has done that just three times and just once in the past nine games. Also, he has just one game with three or more passing touchdowns this season. Last year, he had eight such games.

The Saints are 16-point favorites and also carry the highest implied total of 31.75 points. Those numbers are eye-poppingly good for any quarterback, but Brees' price reflects that on FanDuel. He is priced at $8,400, which ranks third among quarterbacks.

New Orleans is favored by 15 points, and Brees has never been such a big favorite since joining the Saints in 2006.

If we lower the spread to 13 points or higher, the Saints are 2-5 against the spread and only 4-3 straight up since 2006.

Because of his high price and limited upside, Brees looks like a quarterback to avoid this weekend.