NFL

Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

David McCaffery  —  @mccaffmedia Dec 20th, 2017
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Over/Under: 47.0
Patriots Implied Team Total: 29.25
Bills Implied Team Total: 17.75

If the season ended today, the AFC East would field two playoff teams: the usual suspects, the New England Patriots (11-3), and the surprising Buffalo Bills (8-6). The Patriots appear well on their way to securing another 1 seed in the AFC, while the Bills are fighting for their first playoff berth since the 1999 season.

A loss here would be devastating to each of these bids, and as such, this is a very important contest. When these teams met in Week 13, the Patriots defeated their divisional rivals 23-3 in a game both franchises would probably like to forget. However, the script should unfold much differently this time around.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $8,400

Every time I mention Rob Gronkowski in this column, he's usually filed under the "others to consider" category. I always say that he's too expensive and doesn't offer any real savings. This week, I don't care.

In 12 career games against the Bills, Gronkowski has been dominant, snaring 61 receptions for 960 yards and 11 touchdowns. Projecting those numbers over 16 games would give him a stat line of 76.25 catches, 1,200 yards, and 13.75 touchdowns, which would represent the second-best season of Gronk's career (other than his ridiculous 2011).

On top of that, the big man is playing his best football right now and has 18 catches for 315 yards over his last two contests (including 9 grabs for 147 yards against these Bills in Week 13).


While he hasn't found the end zone since Week 12, he looks as fresh, healthy, and productive as he has in ages. A Gronk spike is very likely this weekend, but he should produce strong totals even without one. The TE1 cost shouldn't scare you off this week.

Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,700

Dion Lewis seemed like the odd man out in the Patriots' backfield during the early portion of the season, but he's clearly emerged as the team's most reliable option at the position. The sixth-year pro has totaled 60 or more rushing yards or scored a touchdown in 8 of his last 10 contests and is averaging a robust 5.2 yards per carry on the season.

It is unknown how the Patriots' rushing workload will be divvied up now that Rex Burkhead is sidelined with a knee injury, but Lewis is certain to remain the focal point of the team's backfield. This week, he draws a Bills defense that is permitting the most FanDuel points per contest (24.9) to opposing runners. Oh, and he can be started for RB17 cost. Now that's value.

Others to Consider

Tom Brady ($8,600) is still Tom Brady, but he has been in a bit of a funk lately, throwing only two touchdowns and four interceptions in his last three games, including a zero-touchdown performance against the Bills in Week 13. We can expect him to bounce back soon, but rolling the dice at his QB4 cost isn't necessary this week all things considered. Brady has historically owned his rivals, but the Bills have allowed the fewest touchdown passes of any team this year.

Brandin Cooks ($7,200) has only totaled 7 catches, 115 yards, and a touchdown during Brady's three-game slump, and the Bills have been pretty stingy against opposing wideouts. We can't be entirely comfortable starting any Patriots pass-catcher not named "Gronkowski" this week.

LeSean McCoy ($8,600) is the Bills' entire offense at this point. It guarantees him an enormous workload, but it also allows opponents to focus all their attention on him. Still, McCoy ran for 93 yards when these two teams faced off in Week 13, and the Pats have allowed a 100-yard rushing performance in both of their games since then. McCoy isn't a value at RB3 cost this weekend but is locked into a featured workload in an important divisional matchup.

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