5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
New Orleans Saints' Rushing Offense
Mark Ingram went off the hook in Week 15, cranking out a pair of huge plays while racking up 151 yards from scrimmage. Alvin Kamara still found the paint, but from a fantasy perspective, Ingram was clearly the man.
Does that mean we're back to favoring the elder statesman in the backfield, justifying a hefty helping of Ingram in Week 16? While Ingram's not a bad play, that would seem a bit hasty; this could be Kamara's week to shine.
In that game, Kamara had 19 total opportunities (carries plus targets), his largest mark of the entire year. It also exceeded Ingram's 18 opportunities. Given what Kamara was doing on limited touches earlier in the year, that should grab your attention.
And when we say "earlier in the year," that's not referring to the time before the Peterson trade; that's what he was doing in the five games prior to his concussion.
In the five-game stretch from Week 9 through Week 13, Kamara averaged 26.8 FanDuel points per game. The table below compares his workloads in that stretch with the usage he got in Week 15. Overall market share simply refers to the percentage of carries plus targets he got in the team's offense, and his carry market share will exclude all quarterback rushes.
| Kamara's Usage | Carry Market Share | Target Market Share | Overall Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 9 Through 13 | 33.3% | 21.3% | 25.5% |
| Week 15 | 44.4% | 19.4% | 29.7% |
That may not seem like a lot, but for a player as efficient as Kamara, every little bit matters. If they're going to give him extra volume, we should be giving him extra space on our rosters.
This slight increase in volume for Kamara also aligns with what may be the ideal matchup for his role. Not only are the Atlanta Falcons poor against the rush (they're 25th for the full season and 20th from Week 10 on), but they also allow tons of volume to the position, both on the ground and through the air.
The Falcons have allowed 91 receptions to running backs this year, the most in the entire league. They led the league in this last year, as well. It should come as no surprise that the backs who have had good games against them -- like Tarik Cohen, Ty Montgomery, Christian McCaffrey, and Jerick McKinnon -- are guys who can do work in the passing game. Kamara is among the best here.
He likely would have illustrated this weakness in Week 14 were it not for the concussion. Kamara left after just six snaps there. But in those six snaps, he managed to get a carry and three targets. It's possible the big game for Kamara against this group just got put on hold for a bit.
Thankfully, this plus spot for Kamara comes with a bit of a price reduction. He's just $8,500 on FanDuel after sitting above $9,000 for each of the past two weeks. There are plenty of tasty running backs in that pricing range, but it's hard to say no to Kamara with all of the things working in his favor.
All of this isn't to say that Ingram is a bad play. He's still a home favorite in a dominant offense with a good matchup. But based on the areas in which Atlanta struggles, we may want to go harder at Kamara for this week.
